Higher-than-expected inflation data preceded a correction on Tuesday morning that brought Bitcoin (BTC) below the $50,000 price level. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in January, a 3.1% increase year-on-year and a decline from 3.4% in December.
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00:00 Intro
00:20 Sponsor Tangem
00:54 CPI falls 3.1%
01:56 Can the Fed pivot?
03:52 Markets overreacting?
05:28 Bitcoin holding
07:03 Crypto greed & fear index
0912 ETF update
10:14 How much longer can Americans invests in crypto?
11:21 Charts
13:24 Outro
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Inflation
~Bitcoin vs New Inflation Data📉 Jerome Powell Crashing Bitcoin Soon?~
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Market is taking a little bit of an Adjustment today Bitcoin now under 50K We'll be covering all that for you guys Give you some insights as to maybe where The direction is going and break it down For you my name is Paul bar welcome back In the tech path all right let's get Started before we get going let's thank Tangum who is our sponsor today and if You're looking at going into self- Custody this one of the best ways out There to do it and it's one of the tools I think that actually works really well And what I mean by that is with the card And their app you've got a secure method To get your self custody from your Exchanges right over to yourself so all You have to do is click that little link Up there at the top right and go over And you can actually order the three Card set always get the three card set Gives you that extra security and the Additional backup so do that use our Code down below it does help the Channel All right so let's get into a couple of Topics today of course the biggest news Was the CPI inflation rate here's kobc Coming in uh CPI inflation rate Falls to 3.1 above the expectations of 2.9 there Was expected to be a little bit higher Core CPI inflation uh was unchanged at 3.9% above expectations of 3.7 also Coming a little hotter uh this is the 34th consecutive month with inflation
Above 3% for the first time uh jump Since September so this is a big Question as to it only elongates what We've kind of talked about for a while And even since the last fomc Was when I was feeling much less Confident that we would see a rate cut Before the end of the or before the Middle of the year and again all of that Would hinge on CPI data now we've got Our second set of CPI data coming in for January and I think the key here is Going to be F February's print going Forward because remember this is going To go into a March fomc that's going to Be very critical at the next juncture of How the FED is going to react to all of This so you look at the markets right Here here's gar Solway been warning Inflation is going to stall it's Declined around 3% CPI numbers hitting And hotter across the brand uh across The board if the if this becomes a trend Markets in major trouble as Federal Reserve will have to possibly um table The idea of cutting rates entirely for 2024 that would be devastating I think To the political agenda it would be Devastating to the market and I think This would also pivot quite a bit of the Opinion as to whether or not this Market Is in a bull run there are a lot of Factors that really gets going into Whether or not this also goes into a
Hard Landing or a soft Landing many Analysts are still saying hey because of These sticky inflation numbers this is Still an indicator for a recession and That's the problem I think that a lot of People are facing right now now whether Or not Bitcoin is responding to this in A big way I'll go to the charts here in A bit for you and where Bitcoin and both Eth are and also some of the Blue Chips Because I think the Blue Chips when you Look at this new news right here if we Were going to see a major Market Correction you would anticipate one of Those really deep slices into around 10% That would put Bitcoin at somewhere Around 45 that has not been the case so A lot happening for sure fed's Victory Lap in December clearly proved to be Premature remember that remember when we Had the F fomc in December and it looked As though the FED had said we've got it You know the the Situation's under Control and then January happened and Fomc meeting comes in and things aren't Quite as rosy and he's pushing it out Further my question is does that Happened now in March so this would be a Problem uh of course if we saw Ray Cuts So no way that Ray cut is even nearly on The table in March my question is Whether or not we even see one in may Now which was really the anticipated Date that I felt like we were going to
Get to couple of points hit on uh CNBC That they kind of talk about around this But listen in you can kind of get an Idea of where they're going I don't Think the FED is going to be as freaked Out about this number as perhaps the Market is if you look back uh we pulled A quote from Susan Collins uh last week And she's just used the word bumpy the Way a whole bunch of other folks Use the word bumpy uh she's just says Look this is we think it's going to come Down I expect the inflation slowdown Will happen but the timing is difficult To predict and the road May well be Bumpy this is what the FED expected I Think what I see this morning is the Market coming closer to the FED I don't Think also Carl it's time to write off The idea that inflation is going to be Slowing from here there's a lot of January effects in here uh the problem Is I can't be proved right about this For another month or two do you all Right so a couple of things that I think They hit on is that the market is Looking at this as kind of an expected Especially after the January meeting I Think that they actually might be right On this in the sense that this may be Just that we're going to be dealing with This 3% range of of inflation for Possibly into the third quarter of this Year now the question is is how does the
Market respond to that from a Deflationary standpoint and also from a Point of whether or not we think that There's going to be a recession whether At hard Landing or soft Landing I think The big factor here will be watching the S&P 500 and watching the uh the blue Chips in terms of crypto and also taking A look we'll talk about gold here in a Second because that has some factors uh Going forward now the other fact Factor They you have to look at is bitcoin's Resiliency because it is holding this uh 50k range fairly well couple of points Here in this article uh NASDAQ of course Had a rocky start Tuesday this of course You losing uh 1.4 this is the first time We've seen a negative position in the NASDAQ on an opening in several weeks so This is a big deal analysts say that Bitcoin search past the key Psychological sign also kind of puts out A little bit of a scenario where I think People are letting up on this maybe There were uh situations where a lot of Investors were saying hey 50k is kind of My mark that's another one and remember Post ETF uh sell off Bitcoin didn't last Very long so the break above 50k will be Widely viewed as a significant milestone In its comeback I agree but I think this Is one of those points that's going to Be hard to overcome consistently meaning 50k getting over that once we do clear
That that area I think that's the Question mark going forward because that Could be the beginning of a true All-time high uh trajectory providing Two factors here we continue to see Inflation on chipping whether we get a One point a two point conditional change Or we see the job situation not becoming So dire that's the other Factor those Are the concerns I have right now C I Think is still just an issue commercial Real estate is still just an issue that We are going to have to be dealing with And I think the markets have somewhat Baked that in uh to to a certain extent Now China is a little bit different you Know with what's happening over there With everan uh crypto greed index hits Its highest level uh from you know since Bitcoin's last high at 69k couple of Points here that I thought was Interesting is that when you look at Greed and fear and the index along with What we've seen over the past 30 45 days I was a bit s surprised that the GD Index was so high on this because even Though we've seen upward Trends in C We are still seeing a scenario where This it's like we're not out of the Woods kind of thing and I think this is The thing that uh still surprises me That this Market feels so so bullish It's not that we are are not going to Have some sideways action because in
Reality that's going to be the case and Remember it was just February um also Within this cryptocurrency seeing a Solar rally over the past few months Adding about 13% to his value year to Date that's just since January so that's A good uh point right there in the sense Of where Bitcoin is right right now Question is whether or not it will make It to the Hing in the plus 50 range That's a window that I think a lot of Analysts and a lot of Traders are Looking at going into late April early May when The Happening would occur Because remember there's a lot lot Happening right there and we talked About this in a in a video yesterday About how much demand there was for Bitcoin coming out of these ETFs but at the same time we don't have The supply it's basically a supply Shortage once that happening happens we Even have more more fatigue on Supply Which really could change the dynamic Around this uh of course Peter Schiff Talking about uh the hotter than Expected CPI I don't know that this was Hotter than expect I think a lot of People outside of the traditional Analyst that have said yeah this is Where we're going to land I've been Still skeptical as to whether or not we Can get past this this is that the Sticky part that I'm just not fully into
Just yet for the markets but it did Cause gold def fall even though I think Gold is a repositioning uh asset right Now below to uh below the 2K for the First time in 2024 uh that in itself is Is a deal we'll show the charts here in A second Matt Hogan came in with this he Basically says uh basically in his Opinion three billion number undercounts The fundamental new investor demand These ETFs people assume all the money Flowing out of gdbc uh to date is Rotating into other most likely not Long-term investors have SED the Backfield and that added about 3 million Uh 3 billion on top so his point to Eric Balunis which is that there's been some Massive moves of inflows into these ETFs Now the question is whether or not this Can sustain and I think that's the big Point here right now here's some things To watch for though if we do see slowing Inflows and you see an adjustment here Of potential more data coming into the FED do we see that as a catalyst meaning Slowing inflows More data adjustment going into it Remember typically what we see in these Preh happing is a little bit softer Market on bitcoin do we see Bitcoin come Under the 45k range that would be my Question to a lot of these Traders out There you got other things going out Here you got how much longer can
Americans kind of keep buying crypto and This is looking at more of a retail F Front on this most predictable crisis We've ever had highlight the urgent need For a reassessment of the fiscal TR Trajectory Public's growing anxiety over Government debt everybody I think Understands that now there's two uh Frames of thought there one of course is That you could have kind of the flight Or fight mechanism in a lot of retail Consumers meaning they regress back into A cash position or you have people who Have maybe finally given up on the Traditional monetary system and said I Don't trust the dollar anymore and I'm Going to start adjusting My investment plan maybe even my cash Reserves into a different frame of Thought and I think that's what we're Dealing with right now in the United States is um a bit of a a conundrum here Between maybe the markets I think a lot Of the bitcoiners are thinking this way A lot of crypto investors are starting To think this way more and more as we See continued pressure on the dollar Going into the charts real quick of Course right there is the big drop right Here we're looking at the Lux algo uh Trans transition right here on the Signals in overlay and some interesting Points right here that I want to kind of Focus on when we were looking at this
Zone right here around the 50k and where It's regressed down to 492 currently even though we did see it Dip down to 482 um was the separation in Topline Sentiment and bottom line sentiment in Our uh Market sentiment index one thing That we've seen here since Bitcoin has Been ranging above 48,000 is the Separation of those two sentim trackers And typically Bitcoin holds very tight Together on these so this is going to be One to watch if you look at ethereum Little different story but it did take a Big jump yesterday of course going up Toh 2659 first time over 2600 in a while And then of course adjusting back down Still holding the 2600 rate and then you Look at salana which has continued to Hold through this this tells me that the Market itself is still somewhat Skeptical of where we're going to be Going whether or not that is a positive Uh scenario that plays out I think again Goes back to my point of you have two Trains of thought some people who reg Regress to cash try to work the money Markets or a little bit more of their Aggressive investor which is going to be Looking at this as an opportunity to Catch some of these softer markets at Even these small dips going forward but Anyway uh Salon is trading right there Up slightly on the day Avalanche down
Though almost three and uh almost almost Lost everything it's gained since Yesterday it backed down at 3978 the Other ones that we watching of course Link also a regression uh back down uh Ones that I like of course that we've Talked about here render up three almost 4% right now in the day again more uh I Think more tactical scenarios are Playing on the tech side that are really Good for some of these web 3 projects so We're going to continue to watch that We'll do a breakdown of that give you Guys a full rundown on what's happening Over in the web 3 space and what's going Going on there because there are some Potentials there for you know some quick Swing trades so be uh be sure to Subscribe right now so you guys can get Kind of an update of all that if you're Not in the diamond circle make sure and Get in right now it's a great place to Get additional content catch me on X Paul bar catch next time right here on Tech Paath
