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Are you starting to see it are you Starting to see the flip the flip in the Mentality of the retail Trader the flip From some of the analysts and the flip From the media we're starting to get That bullish feel coming through the Market and if you don't agree with me That's absolutely okay I want to show You the data in today's video Going Back Decades for the stock markets and just Over a decade for BTC now I've got a lot Of data to get through today so make Sure you hit that like And subscribe Button some of this stuff is a recap of Data that we looked at over six months Ago which helped us identify the bottom In the market June of 2022 October 2022 November for Bitcoin 2022 and one of the Most significant lows we saw in 2023 March of 2023 so all of this data is Stuff that we have looked at but the big Question I want to answer today is when Is the pullback what we're starting to See is a flip from many saying the Bottom's not in I'm waiting I'm sticking It out this thing is going to collapse You just wait and now they're starting To ask when is this thing going to pull Back there is going to be some max pain For these people and unfortunately or Fortunately if you're in the market it's Probably going to squeeze them as far as They can possibly go to the upside Before they capitulate buy and then
We'll see some sort of Correction I want To get through the data in today's video Rather than just my thoughts so make Sure you do hit that like And subscribe And if you want more details about Studying the past to forecast the future We are your home of macro cycle analysis Across the stock markets Bitcoin crypto And the biggest of them all the real Estate cycle check out the link in the Top of the video description for our Tia Premium membership you can join our Premium community over there who are Crushing it with crypto gains going long Going short in the market there is a lot Of information to help you guys make Your money in the crypto markets the Trading and technical analysis courses That we teach in Tia premium it does Cover everything that has a chart Forex Futures markets stock markets and of Course cryptocurrencies so more on that Later more about the gains let's dive Into the first big question that most Have and what I'm saying is how do you Know the low is in it's flipping from That two do you think we'll get a Pullback soon because a lot of these Folks have been waiting for a 10K or a 15K or a 20K Bitcoin are getting stuck On the sidelines and this is the mindset Games that go on in the market it's not Necessarily about I'm going to buy here And sell here it sounds so easy you can
Really see that it comes down to a Trader's mindset and unfortunately for Most they don't have a plan they don't Have a plan to manage these emotions They don't know when to buy they don't Know what to look for when it comes to Pullbacks they don't know what to look For on breakouts that's what I'll look At in today's video so hopefully you can Start to put together a plan now there Are many reasons why the market has to Fall there's a lot of logical reasons Why the market should fall one of them Is of course the interest rates the Interest rates are looking like they Should be increasing again this year the Market is talking about another interest Rate hike potentially two more in 2023 But the markets just don't care the Thing we need to focus on is the chart Itself not the fundamental news Headlines and some of those fundamental News headlines don't factor in where the Cash is coming from this is a Fundamental news headline and we're Going to get an update about how much Money is sitting on the sideline soon But essentially when there is money on The sidelines the money has to do Something it has to make a return and Eventually it finds its way back into The market after certain Peaks at the Moment we are still trying or the market Is still holding a lot of money on the
Sidelines there will be an update for This soon but currently there's over Five trillion dollars of money sitting On the sidelines Potentially some of that will be Invested like you can see there is a Period where the money goes into the Market and through this period the Market was going up and then eventually Some of that money starts to get pulled Out towards the end the money Finds Its Way back into the market and then like You can see here nothing happened for a Decade or thereabouts with the money on The sidelines so the money market funds The total Financial assets here and then Eventually it starts to get pulled out Again but it doesn't necessarily mean That there is going to be a collapse it Could just potentially mean that some of That money needs to start making a Return because in particular we've seen A lot of gains in the market one in Particular of course is Bitcoin but the Majority of that money is going to be Going into the stock markets the S P 500 And the NASDAQ you guys asked me to Cover the NASDAQ again and I will get to That in a moment so we've got heaps and Heaps of data to get through the first Thing we want to look at because we're Talking about when is this pullback the Idea here is I want to explain that they Might not be a pullback so get your
Plans ready and the reason for that is There isn't much to say that we'll get a Significant pullback so the first thing You need to look at is what level are You considering a pullback to what we've Seen Is one wake up look at that anyone can Count that we've had one week up we had Nine weeks down From this level and just one week up so Far we've seen a minimum of five weeks Up that was a previous move and then From the low here so that's our swing Bottom to the peak that was another Eight weeks up so if you're in the Mindset that one week up and then a Pullback is likely then set your orders Where you think they should be and I've Got some price levels in mind as well But looking at the past results we've Seen eight weeks and we've seen five Weeks so it's possible that we still Have another few weeks to go maybe on The Lower Side maybe we just do three Weeks but if we look at five weeks that Could take us out to Mid July and who Knows where that price is going to end Up before You'd get the pullback so the important Thing here is that we'll eventually get A top and then a pullback but it's Probably more important to keep in mind Where that time frame is time frame is Going to be and like we've seen in the
Past five weeks and then eight weeks as Well it's probably unlikely that one Week up and then a significant pullback Would occur basically that's that's Unlikely that's what the data is saying That's what's happened in the past and Even in the bear Market there were Plenty of times where Bitcoin went up More than just one week and then had a Collapse so if we're looking at it in Pure time even from the Gen low to the March top there was nine weeks there so It's probably unlikely that they're Going to see one week up a good pullback And then a continuation it's probably More likely that we're going to see a Continuation and then a pullback that Could mean many things to many people Some people might just be waiting for 30 000 or 29 900 where the previous daily Bottom was but others unfortunately are Probably waiting for prices under 27. And like I said I'll just pull up some Of the 50 levels it's probably unlikely That we're going to get a pullback under 27 000. so adjust your plans accordingly Look for your DCA strategies if this is Actually winding up in a bull flag then It's probably more likely we're about to See the market move above 31 and a half Thousand there is every reason to say That this is possible and more likely Probable that we're going to see a Wind-up and a push higher probably to
The downside for the best case scenario I've been looking somewhere in the high 28 thousands And probably low 29s but if we take a Look at the percentage of how much I'm Willing to lose here it's only a matter Of five percent so if I was to buy here At 30 000 and the downside looking at Previous support levels are somewhere About five percent lower I risk not Getting into the market in the hopes of The price falling in the hopes of the Price falling But looking at what is possibly more Likely it's probably the market going up From this point now this is all Short-term analysis and I'd make the Point that I mean it's just five percent To the downside depends what you're Waiting for a lot are waiting for much Lower prices I don't think that's going to happen Let's have a look at why that is the Case before I give you my opinion based On the data so here we have the 50-week Moving average so I've got the 50 week In the green line here and what I've Pointed out in the chart is where the 50-week bottoms and then we're going to Count forward what happens after the 50-week bottoms because we've just seen That happen around May mid-may so about Six weeks ago we saw the 50-week moving Average bottom
In the past 50-week moving average bottomed here in July of 2012. now what we're going to do Is measure forward from that low and Have a look at six months later that's Going to be 26 bars because that is six Months 26 weeks is six months the market Was higher six months later after the 50-week bottomed now what happens 52 Weeks Later what happens one year after The 50-week bottoms let's have a look so 50 weeks takes us out 52 weeks takes us Out to July of 2013. The market was up again so six months Later after the 50-week bottom Market Was up 12 months later after the 50-week Bottom Market was up I think you can Start to see the trend here without even Having to measure them there's your 50-week bottom six Months later Is your 26 It's higher it's slightly higher but It's still higher we go out 52 weeks Again it's higher so if you're waiting For that pullback it might come and it Probably will seem severe but just look At where the price is now compared to Where it is in about six months time and All this sort of data is stuff that we Looked at six months ago so make sure You do like and subscribe to the channel This is sort of stuff that we cover for The stock markets and look at how it's
Possible that the markets go up in the Face of all the logical stuff saying why The market should actually collapse yet They keep doing the opposite they keep Doing the opposite to the logic so six Months later from the second last cycle In 2015 we had high prices then 12 Months later where again we had higher Prices let's take a look now at 2019. Six months later this is where the 50-week bottomed so that's the open of That week Go 26 weeks out You had a higher price so the market was Higher six months later after the 50-week bottom baring the covert drop Here so the Black Swan event it didn't Go underneath that entry point even with This period here where it touched on the 50-week moving average again it didn't Go underneath that price point 52 weeks Later even now with the pandemic it was Still higher so the market was higher Again we've had one two three Opportunities here in every single case 100 of the time Bitcoin was higher six Months later and 12 months later after The 50-week moving average bottomed Let's take a look what that time frame Would be from this point here 26 bars that's going to take us to about Mid-november of this year mid-november The price according to the data is going To be higher than where it was in
Mid-may price was about twenty seven Thousand dollars of course A lot can Happen in that time we could push up we Can push down it's not the point here The point is 100 of the time so far can Always be wrong The price was higher 12 uh 12 months Later so one year 52 weeks and it's Going to be mid-may of 2024 the price Was also higher again so if we're Waiting for that pullback it can come There have been plenty of pullbacks in Those periods but it's probably likely The price is going to be higher than Where it currently was at the bottom of The 50-week moving average now that'll Look pretty Rosy for Bitcoin it looks Very very bullish like the price is Never going to come down like I said There can be some times where the market Does pull back let's take a look at the S P 500 and some of the data that we've Been covering over the last six months Because the end of the day we need the Traditional markets to also go up for There to be more strength in BTC as well That risk appetite has to come in and of Course that five trillion dollars Sitting on the sidelines has to go Somewhere it's getting eaten away in the Banks it's getting eaten away sitting in Accounts it's not making the same Returns that the market is making Especially when the s p is up over 2
Twenty percent since the cycle low but Before I do that just a reminder Tia Premium link is in the top of the video Description if you want to join us Learning how to trade cryptos the stock Markets and of course understanding the Macro economics out there the real Estate cycle and what we think is Happening over the next few years you Can jump aboard and make these huge Gains like our members are doing here Using trading plans they have learned in Tia premium an update from the previous Video it's only 36 hours ago 100 for Justie musty 100 One percent here on the short had to Flip to the long 20 12 400 130 30 56 127. so great work to you guys In the membership that is that are Absolutely crushing the games out there In crypto and like I said the stuff can Be used on the stock markets Futures Markets Forex markets it's all ta and You're learning a fantastic lifelong Lesson there So let's have a look at some of the Stuff that we've covered before to Update us into the s p this is where Majority are still sitting they're still Sitting as largely bearish so that Question what is your view on risky Assets this was conducted in on May 31st So one month ago I I love these things Because they are so important to see
What people were thinking at that time And taking a look at the day here where The where the price was it was just here Between this point so the 31st of May And the second Of June the market from then Rose to a peak of seven percent so I was Up six and a half percent or so that's Pretty important to note because at that Point Almost two-thirds were still bearish and Only about a third or so were neutral or Slightly bullish so there really wasn't Much going on in terms of the Bullishness and now of course they've Moved over but you guys have been Following like And subscribe you know The deal down below know that we were Very very bullish at this low here this March low in 2023 because of the Severity of the fundamental Collapse the news it was so crazy yet The price didn't continue to go down That is a that if I can just instill That in everyone they'll start to learn Why these markets do the opposite to Logic all right so that's the first Thing there most was still extremely Bearish probably going to start to see Them move a little more bullish the Other piece was over 50 of bear markets Bottom in October so you might remember The data that I was doing on the channel Looking at the low in October and how
It's over the years have shown up to be Many many lows in October in particular 2002 and then 2003 we had the March low Again and then the markets ran off from That point we had other lows here in 2008 just to name a few I could go back Over the course of history but that's Already been done in many of these Videos so that tells us well markets Typically like to bottom in October and The next highest percentage is March we Got an exact repeat we've got an October Cycle low and then a March higher low on Extreme news the news was so fearful in March more so than October yet the price Was higher so that's giving us a Divergence in the market sentiment all Right The next thing from Seth here is we're Looking at the s p down 20 in 2022 so Two quarters it was down in a bear Market what happens after that point After 6 and 12 months later 100 of the time The market was higher So that was the data that was coming out Last year talking about it in March like You can see from the post here 28th of March And that was basically where that low Was and the market started to move up From that point And guess what well we had the bear Market down 20
We had the market starting to move up Again and six to 12 months after those Lows of course six months we are higher June there is a June bar and then here Is the other June bar 12 months later Also hires again October let's have a Look at that see if that's also higher Again I dare say it will be because These things so far 100 of the time have Shown that the s p will be higher six to 12 months later This also came out around that time as Well looking at some of the biggest Tech and stocks in general all of these Stocks were up massively and the fear at The time was well the breadth isn't Enough we're not seeing the whole Market Flow through here and all the gains were Getting taken by just a few companies Of course they are those companies are Doing the most in these periods of time And then eventually like I've talked About before you skim a little bit off Some of those gains and throw them in to The crappier stocks because well you Think all the games have been made just Like in crypto no point in buying Bitcoin no point in buying ethereum all The games are going to be made in all Coins same mindset goes on in the stock Market no point in buying Apple Microsoft Berkshire and Nvidia all the Games have been made think about the Nvidia chart now where it's just pumped
Think about Tesla at the Peaks oh the Gains have all been made so people move To less favorable stocks worse companies I would say compared to the top Companies just based on the charts and Then they hope for the best for those Markets to go up as well And this just goes through to the small Caps and the large caps as well looking At how that works in a bull market so These are the large cap verse small cap The ratio is dropping that's showing a Bull market in the s p basically they're Not keeping up the small caps and not Keeping up and when they do Market Plateaus when they do the market Plateaus right now we're seeing the Small caps we've seen the Divergence Here so large cap stocks are the driver Of secular trends for the s p s p up You're seeing a drop there so that's Absolutely fine to have this Differential differentiation between the Small caps and the large caps and this Is over nearly 100 Years of data Also we had the January trifecta this Was in January this was when the market Was at a low we're looking at it through Here December into this move in January What does the trifecta mean all it was Looking for was a Santa Claus rally did We get one yes we had 2022 we got a Small one but nonetheless nonetheless it Was a Santa Claus rally we had a move to
The upside we had the first five days of The year going up and then we had January had to be a positive as well and We also got that in January so the Trifecta was met one two three That means the last 11 months of the Year were positive let's have a look at What that data was the last 11 months Were up 13 times and down zero times Zero times the average return was 17 From that point and for the full year I'll move my face out of the way 22 Again it was a hundred percent return There so every single uh it has 100 hit Rate and it was a 22 average on the full Year what has the s p done so far well For the full year there is January open To where it currently sits it's done 13.78 so potentially they're still under The nine eight or nine percent to go We're in looking at the averages for the S P 500 so let's take a look here and go Up about eight Or nine percent which takes us out to The all-time high you can bet your Bottom dollar we're going to start to See some of the fear come back into the Market when or let's say if the s p gets Back to these previous highs around 4 600 and then again at around 4 800 which Was where the previous old all-time high Was And for the NASDAQ just looking for some Pullback points because everyone is
Waiting for a pullback here looking at Our 50 14 000 that's possible I don't think it's Likely yet throwing my throwing my neck Out here again but uh let's say 14 that Has the possibility it's above the old Previous top it's at the 50 level that's Absolutely okay for this market and Taking the entire range there's your 50 12a so I doubt the NASDAQ is going to Get back under 13 000 within this bull Market cycle that's a big call I'm happy To throw that one out there because the Market has been so uh resilient and it's Pushed through these key levels on the Back of that bad news this key level was Through the US debt ceiling crisis what Happens next Market moves up from that Point I've covered and recapped a lot of What's going on in the market and what We saw over the last six months And it's continued to play out it's good To recap those things to see what we've Been talking about and see if it's Actually played out one of the other Things was the presidential cycle you Know we've covered that before we are Now in the third year of the Presidential cycle which is a four-year Cycle next year is the election in the U.S the third year which is this year is Always the strongest gains always has The strongest gains over the last 100 Years it doesn't seem like things are
Changing this year so hit the like And Subscribe that's the update check out That 50 week I'll be back again with Another video Until then take care and Peace out