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Another day another bearish news Narrative that plagues the entire media This time it's the U.S debt ceiling Crisis just last week we had the banking Collapse the week before was another Bearish news event and each time the Market continues to overcome this so is This time different is this going to be That final pin that pops the bubble the Bubble that is the most hated rally in History let's find out in today's video We've got an update for BTC a massive One as the US dollar continues to climb The S P 500 drops off a short-term Cliff We've also got the NASDAQ which is Pumping up nice and hard right now so as Usual make sure you hit that like And Subscribe button top of the video Description are our Channel sponsors Triple sign up bonuses with swiftx more On that later but the main thing that we Want to cover today is what is going on In the markets as we lead through this May period of basically a churny choppy Sideways market yet the massive bearish News narratives continue to plague us so Let's start with BTC and what's been Going on over the last couple of days Well the last couple of days Bitcoin has Had a move to the upside on Tuesday and Wednesday and moved to the downside so We're basically where we began about 12 To 13 days ago this is where the market Dropped to on Friday the 12th overall in
Terms of the macro view here we still Have the underside of 25 300 this is That double top level that can act as Support and then all the way down to 23 900 this is the post that I had up on Twitter so if you're not following make Sure you do that the links are in the Video description use those ones so you Don't get scammed out there by all the Other accounts that are trying to Impersonate my account I only have one Instagram one Twitter one YouTube no Telegram groups all right guys so back To BTC the Bears are getting excited We've seen a 3.2 percent drop in the Last 24 hours the markets are nearly Closed by the time you see this they'll Be closed so this is actually going to Be most likely one of the lowest Closures we have seen since March Basically since the market pumped up After the mega banking crisis collapse You know it got all the way down to 19 And a half thousand dollars and though Then the market jumped pretty heavily Really fast from that point uh closing At around 24 to 25 000. so this is Basically the lowest close that we have Seen since that time coming somewhere in In the low 26 000 but to the downside There is still plenty of support so Going to this particular tweet that I Posted back on the 10th of May so just Over two weeks ago now this is the same
Analysis nothing has changed in this Period when we're looking at the macro Anything Could Happen short term day to Day a few percent up few percent down That doesn't matter so in terms of the Macro picture sure the macro picture is Still intact because the major things Have broken and they haven't broken down So the major moves are broken to the Upside they haven't broken to the Downside so the macro is still intact to The upside looking at some unfinished Business between 24 000 and 27 000 so that's basically this Area of price range it's just above Those tops at 25 but you can see just a Little further down these levels that's At 24 these levels are around 24. more Specifically it's around 23 900 but for A nice round number we're using 24 000 so that's basically this level right Here on the chart and obviously you can See to this point that's 26 and a half And somewhere around these lows is 27 so You can see that the market has some Unfinished business in this mid Zone to Overcome we jumped up quite quickly and On pretty strong volume so if we can Test that put in another solid Foundation that allows us to start Moving back to the upside in the months Ahead And remember we're not expecting May to Be some big blow off top month it hasn't
Done that in the past what has happened In the past is almost exactly what is Happening right now not in terms of the Extent of the move but that the market Is actually just bearish should bearish In May we've all heard the saying before Selling may go away but the main thing I Want to have a look at here is this Little run to the downside early in May And now we're sort of seeing a sideways Period and then another day down we Haven't broken this low yet maybe we Don't let's wait and see we've had a Little bit of volume come back into the Market on this move down but the main Thing here is that we had a top around April another lower top In late April and early may we had a Downside move here and now the market is Trying to figure out whether we need to Go and test to see if the demand comes In at lower prices before it can start To move up or if we're going to get Heaps more Supply coming which pushes The market further down note this period April top moved to the downside lower Top move to the downside go back a year We had a late March early April top then We had another top here similar-ish sort Of timing but the main thing here is we Had a move to the downside almost day to Day in May that Bitcoin did in 2022 Within the bear Market this time around It's been nowhere near as severe look
What happened Marco went sideways again A little move to the upside and then Collapsed into June I'm not saying we're Going to get a collapse into June Because you can see just how different The move the extent of the move is but In terms of the timing relatively the Same that's why we focus here on timing Because time and time again the timing Basically works out so as long as we're In tune with the timing then we can have A better idea of what we could expect Next looking to June you can see the Market heads down but in this case maybe It's not going to be this Mega collapse We haven't seen a mega collapse in may We haven't seen a mega collapse in April Like we saw in 2022 and like we saw in 2021 during the bull market is almost Exactly the same the top was the exact Same day the 14th of April all-time high What we just saw in this little Peak now 14th of April exactly two years was the Top that we just saw in the market this Was that period that you may have Remembered from the Channel that I was Calling for downside action I was Calling for the market to fall I didn't Know the extent of the fall but in terms Of the timing and the structure it was Looking extremely weak at that time I said this on many other channels you Guys might have noted that was an Extremely bullish time and of course I
Was called a fool because I mean people Don't want to hear that the market is Weak at the Peaks when they just get in The idea here is that we just want to Look at the timing we can see this Moving forward so we've got a a two-year Repeat here into those May lows now We're a few days on from that and the Market is again trending sideways what Happened into June had another little Move to the downside but the market is Basically in the same trading range so How to move up and then a move within That same Zone July again and then of Course coming into the late part of Summer the market starts to move away so We might have another couple of months Of just figuring out what we want to do We'll have a look at where that trading Range comes in but essentially looks Like the market is doing a similar sort Of repeat but not to the extent of the Move just to the timing of the dates and The cycle itself so we have this Mega Pump that's going on in the stock market And it's not shifting over into the Crypt markets just yet or at least not Into Bitcoin of course Bitcoin has been Going up for the last five to six months We've just had a bit of a time to pause Now if you're wondering what I'm looking At doing here I've specifically laid it Out is this the time to be buying just Like I talked about this area here the
Buying opportunities the mega buying Opportunity at these lows and the other Buying opportunities underneath that Twenty two thousand dollar level so pay Attention to these sorts of things here If you don't have a position yet or You're unsure about the markets there is Enough people out there talking about The bearish picture but of course they Were talking about the bear picture all The way down they continue to talk about The bear picture on the way down and Then again as the market pumps up They're still just trying to talk about The bear picture to the way down the Market has gone up 100 don't miss out on What the opportunities are in the market Based on all of these bearish narratives That continue to circulate and we get a New one every single week if you're Unsure about that go to Twitter and Check out this link uh this tweet that I Have in the top of my Twitter I have Gone through and laid out all of the Bearish narratives that continue to come Up week after week so if you're sort of Not getting that right feel about the Market or you're unsure because a lot of These things happen so quickly you can Go back and have a look at all of the Bearish events that we have seen over The last two years and start to piece This puzzle together So piecing it together we have the US
Dollar the same sort of bearish and Bullish narratives happen at the exact Peaks of the market now I've covered This plenty of times before we had Ultra Bearish news on the USD and the market Is now pumped from that point I hope you Guys are seeing this play out in real Time as we talk about it on the channel To to get this somewhat accurate isn't The most easiest game especially because You're going against the herd and you See it in the comments people are saying How bad the economy is and you you have To expect further downside etc etc in The stock markets that is more likely Not going to happen based on some of the Other data I have coming up in just a Moment but just as a reminder here the US dollar probably seeing some more Upside because of how bearish the news Was coming in to a double bottom and now We're seeing the market move to the Upside so this pressure to the upside on The US dollar It's probably having a little bit of an Impact on the Bitcoin price Bitcoin Hasn't done so badly in this period that The US dollar has been going up over the Last couple of weeks you can see for Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks Basically been in this trending Channel Between 28 and about 26k so not doing Too bad considering the move to the Upside on the US dollar and remember
Back in September of 2022 basically got This one to the day the news was so Ultra bullish on the US dollar but our Technicals were telling us otherwise Getting these lower tops coming into the Market and basically specifically at That top it was just too bullish to be True everyone was talking about the Bullishness here and the collapse of the Other currencies coming back to parity In some cases so never let the news Narratives the media narratives anything That is mostly going on out there never Let that sway your own analysis when You're checking the charts speaking of Checking the charts in this case we can See see that the markets Are Climbing Higher we can see that the economies Are Climbing higher so this is April 2023 State coincidence indexes three-month Change another great post here from Seth Getting this data here so basically this Is showing the states of the us through April actually increasing so this is an Increase in the states themselves so Basically in what they are putting out There what they're producing the only State that went backwards was Alaska it Went backwards by 0.1 to 0.5 every other State that you can see here in Darker Green and lighter green they've all done At least 0.6 or greater than one percent That's the majority of these states are Expanding three more months of expansion
At least so these calls of the fear of The recession and contraction in the Markets is just not happening moving Over to the markets now and in the short Term we've seen a couple of days down But in the longer term these markets Have been rallying since October and Pushing to Fresh highs which I'll get to In just a moment with some pretty Significant data of what we can expect Over the next 12 months on the data in Terms of the vix you know we cover this Looking at significant Tops on the vix Coinciding with significant lows on the S P so we've got the the lows back here That's June October December March we go Back to the vix you look through these There's your June there is your September October There is your March and then through This period here we have another little Peak here in December so what are we Seeing now well we're seeing another Little Peak to the upside but it's Nowhere near as severe as what we saw Through 2022 and you take a scroll out Even 2022 wasn't really as severe as any Of the other times that we saw in History so this is still on the Downtrend and that's what you want to See on the vix for an uptrend to Continue on the s p in a macro sense of Course in the short term we are going to See some tests because we have gone on a
Significant rally here to the upside Breaking past 50 or testing past the 50 Level testing previous highs getting Into fresh High Ground that we haven't Seen since August of 2022 there has to Be a pullback on these moves because Most are still uncertain about whether We're going up or down and of course the Macro bears are still out there in great Force but unfortunately for those guys The markets just keep putting in higher And higher lows so keep a look out for The 4 000 level on the SPX and for the ES1 so this is our futures Market here You can see that we even had a pretty Significant bounce back this morning With Nvidia pumping on the back of some Pretty hefty news of their earnings Reports so this is NVIDIA putting in a Low in October a higher low in December Another Mega higher low in March this Thing's nearly at all-time Highs but in After hours trading it has pumped to Somewhere around 380 to 400 bucks so a Brand new all-time high for NVIDIA and Of course this is leading the NASDAQ up Into fresh high prices as well we saw it Just coming down the last couple of days Testing the 50 level testing these Previous tops and has now closed a Little higher does this mean the Downside short term is over not yet we Want to see those tops get broken out Around 14 000 points but a little more
On that later I just want to have a look At this particular data here this stuff Is absolutely damning evidence of a buy The dip opportunity this is just the Pure data this is the data looking at Nearly 100 Years of History showing the Full instances where there have been by The dip opportunities basically if the Market has gone down two percent in five Days and then recovered that two percent Within the next 20 days it's a buy the Dip opportunity and what this has shown Over the last 95 years is that the Annualized return has been extremely Phenomenal to be buying those dips There's only been a handful of times That this has not been a good case and Even in those times it was so muted Negative two percent negative three Percent negative one percent negative Five percent massive massive gains here Single digits up to Triple digits this Data comes from funstrat and put out by Bloomberg and notified to me by Seth so A great Twitter account to go and follow If you're not following him I suggest You do go and check him out on Twitter So basically if we're looking at each of These opportunities then the buy the dip Has far outweighed not buying the dip It's the best opportunity to be getting Those dips especially the s p going back To 1928 I mean the data just doesn't lie And if you enjoy the data in the macro
Cycle analysis you know what to do hit That like And subscribe to the channel This is your home macro cycle analysis Across the stock markets Bitcoin crypto And of course the biggest of them all The real estate cycle which is set to Continue up as crazy as it sounds with How the economic conditions are up for The next couple of years so don't go Anywhere hit those buttons down below And then at the top of the video Description here we have a limited time Bonus for the Aussies triple sign up Bonuses with swift X until Friday so you Basically have two days left to get on Board with that otherwise check out buy Bit and bitget for huge sign up bonuses Here nearly 38 000 worth of course There's going to be some trading Involved so just make sure you have your Plans in play before you start to get on Board with those exchanges another Trend That the NASDAQ has been following since This low in October is the upwards Trend Here well the upwards bias and of course We're looking to the bull case at the Moment because that's what the market is Telling us the market is telling us it's Going up why on Earth would we be Continuing to try and short something on A longer term basis if the market keeps Going up short term yes the Bulls can Get overheated like we've talked about Many times before uh just last week
Actually we saw this thing break through There is a bit of overheating here so it Needs to come back and retest this is Healthy for the market so we're seeing Some good healthy moves so we don't get Too far too quickly and too far ahead of Ourselves as well the good news for this Is it looks like we're continuing to Consolidate on the upper side of the Channel you can see this is basically This move down into the low and it is Encapsulating a lot of these lows to the Upside and only recently through April And May for the NASDAQ Have we been consolidating in the upper Half Of the channel so this is looking again Pretty strong what we wouldn't want to See is the market break down and start To consolidate in the bottom half of the Channel That would then lead us to some Potentially lower prices and testing of The previous support levels because Maybe we've gotten too far too quickly Ahead of ourselves but for now looks Like we're still testing in this upper Band even to the downside as long as we Keep putting in higher lows looking back At the horizontal support levels then We're basically in the clear we are just Buying time until this Market can Consolidate enough to attempt another Push to the upside and now for that Damning evidence for more upside on the
NASDAQ this thing has not failed there Is a hundred percent accuracy you know I've talked about I don't often need to Have 100 percent accuracy anything over 80 is typically pretty good But in this case 12 months NASDAQ 100 Returns so the top 100 in the NASDAQ has Never Failed so what are we looking at here NASDAQ 100 new 52-week highs after more Than six months without one so just like Last week we covered there were new 52-week highs for the NASDAQ so you look Back 52 weeks so that's a new 52-week High after six months so we have here After more than six months without one So here was your highest price this is Longer than six months and now we find Ourselves hitting a new Fresh 52-week Hire after not having one for six months Now what the data says is that in 100 of Cases over the next 12 months the market Has a positive return meaning we're Going to see a positive return from the NASDAQ this is completely against what The media is saying what the macro bears Are saying not talking about the short Term because there are some great Short-term opportunities if you are Trading on a minute charts or the hourly Charts maybe even uh end of day chart You've got some good moves to the Downside within this is a regular day Here so you have some good moves to the
Downside if you're a short-term Trader But for the macro guys the guys Expecting a financial collapse on the Back of all of these bearish narratives The data is showing that at the end of 12 months every time we've seen this Since 1989 100 of the time that NASDAQ Has been positive six months later from This breakout so we are a breakout in May so six months later end of November 85.7 of the time it's seen a positive Return only two times here there was not A positive return so five percent in 2004 which ended up going on to higher Prices as well and in 1990 negative 22 So a significant down here for the 1990. Could it happen again yeah when the data Says 14 of the time it could but if you Want to sway the probabilities on in Your favor which is what we're here to Do in investing because we don't know For sure what's going to happen although The data says 100 we don't know for sure You want the probabilities to be in your Favor especially if you're on the macro Picture here so 85 I don't want to bet Against that in three months time again 85 percent it was on only these two Years that it had a negative one and a Negative 24 so the market was climbing Up In that next part of the of the next Three months so the first three months Negative and then started to climb up
And then by the end of that year it was In the positive And then if we go back to just one month From now so uh one month from the middle Of May middle of June 78 of the time so basically eight out of Ten times it's been a positive return The next month from this period and when It wasn't 2019 it was basically negative Two percent 1991.7 and 89 3.5 so barely anything to Be worried about in those cases so you Tell me if you're a macro bear in the Market and you see the economy going to Crap and people can't afford their food And their electricity bills and their Car payments and their rental payments And going on their holidays and whatever Else that the media continues to throw Our way like you can see from my market Climbs wall of worry posts here any of These bearish narratives narratives Which continue to come up and don't Forget next month we have the the Interest rate meeting with the FED as Well go and check that out whenever that Comes there's going to be something new Some other bearish narrative you tell me If you want to bet against these numbers By all means what do you think is going To happen in the next one month three Months six 12 months from now do you Think we're going to see higher price Prices for the s p for the NASDAQ and
For BTC or do you think we're going to Take out the 2022 lows that's the comment the Question for you top of the video Description like subscribe you know on The details top of the video description There I'll be back with you for another Update that's where your home of the Macro cycle analysis telling you the Stuff you need to hear when for some Reason or another no one else is all Right guys I'll see you at the next Video Until then take care peace out