💵 Register NOW For Our FREE Trading Workshops + Free Crypto & Economic Report :
🔥 TIA PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP: Trading Courses & Exclusive Community
Please subscribe and share the content with a friend if you find it valuable to you. Thanks, Jason.
UP TO $38,745 FREE! Crypto Exchanges
🥇 ByBit Free $30,030 + 0% Maker Fees:
🥈 Bitget Free $8,725 (US + Global Users NO-KYC)
🇦🇺 Swyftx, Best Australian Crypto Exchange, $20 Free BTC
(Disclaimer: Swyftx, ByBit and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own.)
▶ My Official Socials ◀
YouTube
Instagram
Twitter
▶ My Must-Have Crypto Resources ◀
👾 Free TIA Community Discord:
📈 TIA Gann Swing Indicator
🏆 TIA PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP, Trading Courses & Exclusive Community
🐂 TRADINGVIEW ($15 Off)
🔐 LEDGER Crypto Wallet
👨🏫 KOINLY Crypto Tax (30% Off)
This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews
Today's video let's look at the Bitcoin Bull market transitional period and Let's look at it from a worst case Scenario for the bears but first a worst Case scenario for the Bulls this also Leans into a worst case scenario for the Bears to the downside because you'd Never want to see a market go too low That thing can break structure and get Destroyed so that's what we'll discuss In today's video we're going to look at A worst case scenario for both outcomes The Bulls and the Bears don't go Anywhere hit that like And subscribe you Know the deal here we look at history to Give us an idea the probabilities of What is going to happen in the future no Guarantees but so far it has worked out Extremely well you've got all of the Data here on the channel going back many Many years all right guys let's kick it Off with the worst case scenario for the Bulls but it's also in fact a worst case Scenario for the Bears kind of depending On how long you want to be a bear for if You just want to be a bear for a few Months then this is not the outcome you Want if you want the market to go down For many years so you can accumulate for Years on years on years then this is the Outcome that you want and hopefully the Market or Bitcoin in this case does work Its way back up so the key areas I'm Looking at here are our key bottoms the
November cycle low and the March low so Far so that's the March around 10th at 19.5 K so there's your price point and Then your time point and then also the November low as well the 21st which hit Around 15 500 what that looks like here On the chart that we can use is this low Here and this low here the idea here is We do not want to see the Tia or the Gan Swing indicator this does not want to Get broken down if we're in a macro Trend now of course we can have some Spikes but it has to be very quick and It has to close above those levels again To continue in the bullish structure so Some spikes are okay or if you're on a Candle you'd be looking at that as Wix Because basically this is the macro Structure we have met many of the Conditions the log downtrend has been Broken we have broken past the 50 levels And we've exceeded the time to the Upside we've seen more time to the Upside in this rally than we have in the Previous rallies as well so the macro Conditions have been met for the start Of a bull market and we're going to look At the phases of this Market as well if You can get through these next two Phases of the market things are going to Look pretty sweet but if we remain in a Bearish state of mind I want to show you The problems that can occur if the Mindset remains bearish for too long
Things get way out of hand you can see That in history as well before I get too Far ahead of myself let's step it back To these areas here if these two areas Are to break down you march low and your November low that is going to be Extremely bad of course for the Bulls Because they want some upside they want To be buying and waiting for that price To go up there's going to be extremely Bad for most bears as well I don't know Of many bears that want this Market to Stay down for years on end if that's You By all means let me know in the comments But the majority already Biz they want The second attempt to buy at the key Support levels that being 15K and around 20K as well they want that second chance To get to those lows and unfortunately Because of the macro structure if we are To get back to those levels remain there For a period of time it is not going to End well for anyone it's basically a Sign that the bull has gone and it's a Sign that even the Bears or the shorter Term Bears the weeks to the months Monthly Bears even they are leading the Party and this thing will basically just Go dead this is typically what a chart Looks like that has gone dead a project That has gone dead don't worry what the Project is this is pure technical Analysis looking at what investors do Where does the supply come in where is
The demand and this would be the same Thing this is the mindset of the Investors in any chart that looks like This the investors have left the only Times they come back is to make a pump During a bull market which was just that 2021 and then it's basically basically Back to a dump and that dump has been Going on for many many years and you can See the monthly swings breakdown as well That's why we don't want to see the Monthly swings break down to BTC it Hasn't happened in the past that's a Sign of a nice strong Market that is Just going through Bubbles and pops and Bubbles and Pops that we don't want to See the monthly swing bottoms get taken Out even on the covert pandemic dump Here in March of 2020 it was unable to Break past the low of December A Black Swan event is unpredictable We're not trying to predict a new Black Swan event where we can get to these Lows maybe it happens maybe we Spike Down there and come back up again but I'm not in the game to try and predict a Black Swan event and I think that might Be a bit of a Fool's game to hope that That happens in the near future let's Wait and see anyway but basically going Back to the previous Cycles you can see Once the market breaks out it doesn't Come back and give you another Opportunity to get back into these lows
It's broken out of the monthly swing Tops it accumulates re-accumulates Reaccumulates and then it's Off to the Races so this is one of the main reasons Why even for Bears you don't want to see It go down too far because that breaks The structure you want a second chance At a cheap price like everyone does but Unfortunately some of those prices come At a significant cost and that cost is Time that breaks then the time is much Longer to recover to higher prices that Might be good for some but for the Majority I don't think they're in the Game and they want to wait for years on End for another accumulation phase Before we head to new highs the reason I Bring this up is because there are Plenty on Twitter that are basically Calling for some sort of move to the Downside test of these lows and then a Quick move back to the upside the point Here is if we break those lows it's more Likely that we would stay under those Lows because there is just too much Supply being brought onto the market at That price which means there's just not The demand there wasn't the demand that We once thought which means it takes Longer to bring that demand back rather Than where we currently sit so if we are Bears we just want to see it come back And test key resistance levels that have Been set in the past rather than support
Levels so the key resistance levels you Can see where these candle bodies are Around that 23 23 9 we've talked mostly About the 24 to 27k level they're the Key levels that I'm looking at here but Yes we can have Wicks to those levels I'd rather not see Wix below the 19k Because that just looks like it's much Weaker and we would need an extreme Event to get back to that level Something far more extreme than a Banking crisis that has taken out some Of the banks in the U.S something far Far more extreme than that and more Extreme than FTX so combine those two if You can find a narrative that does it Maybe that's a possibility but even Recession probably won't get us back to Those levels and I'll show you why in a Moment as well So for the Bears and the Bulls we Basically want to see price not go any Further than at least these monthly Candle bodies and what I've been talking About mostly here on the channel is Around that 24 23 9 to 24K level it Looks like we're in that zone now being You know around that 26 because that's The upper end at around 27. so I've gone On long enough about this particular Chart here the worst case scenario for The Bulls and in fact this is actually a Worst case scenario for the Bears Depending on your time frame as a bear
Now the next thing I want to look at is The transitional phases that we've Covered a few times here the first Second third fourth fifth and sixth These three at the end so these are Basically six month periods these are What we all hang out for this is what we Want in a market it's about an 18 month Period but this first 18 month period is Very very hard work so if we can get Through it then We get to enjoy the rewards at the end The only thing here I want to look at is Basically the update and we looked at This coming into this Zone towards the End of May we covered this and now we're Basically just grinding our way down in This second uh phase of this six phase Period as well so from this point Nothing new has really happened this is Exactly what we've been waiting for Based on previous second phases of this Cycle you can see in the second phase Mostly in particular this one here in 2015 and in 2019 is a basically is a Grind lower we had a pump and we had a Grind we had a pump and then a grind Which led into the third so it was Slightly longer in this case here Because the first phase was more of a Grind sideways so nothing much is Happening the third phase you've got to Have a small breakout here and then a Grind again a small break a grind a dump
Black Swan but then a grind back into The same price Zone you're in this Price Zone stepping it up back in the price Zone again for the fourth okay so the Fourth is still in the price zone of the Last three and then begins to break out So that's where we currently are Probably remaining in these price zones Probably under this target here which is The monthly swing top which is going to Be extremely Fast paced from that point And in some cases for best that is the Price Target that they're waiting for For the market to then take off once it Happens it doesn't wait for anyone so 48k break that's my prediction is that It's not going to wait for anyone and We've seen it in the past like we can See from this chart here on each of Those Cycles this is the slower grind up Up to the red line and then after the Red line takes off let's zoom in You'll see the speed of that move and if I take it off the log Look at the speed of that move it's Absolutely wild so don't be fooled just Because this is on log the speed of Those moves can be very very fast yes of Course these are in the early days so The the market movement is much quicker But of course we don't well typically I Wouldn't want to wait to that point to Decide whether the market is ready for a
Bull market or not moving forward to the 2015-16 here's your next point it's Basically around a two-weekly swing top Or a monthly swing top so check those Out as well basically from that point You can see the market has Had plenty of time to reaccumulate and Decide re-accumulate and decide and then Look at the speed just take off from There that speed is getting faster and Faster because the move is going up Quicker than it has done in the past More people are jumping on the band Bandwagon and seeing that crypto in this Case Bitcoin is ready for that bull Market it's only the late entrants who Are still hoping and waiting for those Lower prices that get destroyed and by Pretty late in the picture so I move Forward again you'll see just the move To the upside now that just starts to Pick up a lot of pace once we break that Level you can watch from here not too Much pace Break that red line and then the paste Takes off again here is the next Red Line you can see the Market's trying to Decide you've got plenty of bears here Saying no Market's going to break lower You've got them again here you have them Again here I was in the market I Remember that period and then of course There's the break there's your swing Tops there's your tops from the first
Pump there is your test of those tops And the market takes off from that point It waits for no one so let's take a look Forward where we currently are I think Probably around this level here this is Our monthly swing top some might even Want to wait for 52k to get broken so There's a call for around 50k we know That that's where the 50k comes from There's a top at 48 and another level at Approximately 52. so somewhere in the Middle around 50. so call it 48 to 52 This can get very very painful if you're Still waiting for a confirmation of a Bull market up at these levels and the Pain comes in the form of the size of The moves that's what I have this up Here for this is the average true range Now remember I've also got a couple of Things to go through when it comes to The traditional markets to help us Identify the bull market itself and What's going on in the short term the Long term and of course if a recession Comes for the markets if a recession Comes the big word that everyone's Waiting for but first just a quick look At this average true range after there's My Segway hit that like And subscribe Button top of the video description is Our trading Workshop Tia crypto.com That's for the premium memberships this Stuff is what we cover in detail with Our educational programs and courses for
Our members it doesn't seem like it's Painful because we're looking at a chart But when you're in the market it is Extremely painful because what we've Been used to in this trading range don't Forget the time period here November 11 2011 to January 2013 a year year and a Couple of months everyone's used to Trading in a range of two dollars going All the way back here so a day a week is Two dollars right two dollars down to a Dollar 90 cents dollar fifty we're Looking at this price right here and Then the market starts to pick up two Dollars 270 375 430. so what used to Happen in a week Is now times Four or times eight and when we get to The peak it's getting up to times 26 Even after the peak when the market Starts to to pop it's at times 30 so the Move that used to happen uh is is now Happening times 30 towards the peak so It leaves everyone behind let's go Forward to the next cycle The average true Ranch for the the range Of the moves for the week this is the Zone here We can see it's around 60 bucks 40 bucks 30 bucks high of 70. so all the way from The low of 28 ish 27 to a high of about 70 then once we break that the range Just takes off so what you're used to Doing at thirty to seventy dollars now
Becomes something that happens within Hours days to then even hours because The week takes off and you're trading Now two and a half Grand in the week so There is a huge multiple there as well But this just leaves everyone behind in The market takes off there's your red Line there are your tops that's what we Want to avoid next cycle happened again Everyone's used to trading around a Thousand dollar weeks so the market Doesn't move too much then all of a Sudden takes off to about an eight and a Half thousand dollar week so it just Happens very very quickly and that's What I'm talking about where it just Leaves everyone behind it leaves you for Dead once it takes off this from this Point and so I'm assuming this point is Going to be somewhere around 48 to 50 2K We break that level this average true Range although it'll pick up getting to That point that's when it starts to Really take off and What could we be expecting well in the Last cycle we were doing tops of around Eight and a half thousand dollars I'd Probably say that that is a very good Point or good place to start those weeks Are going to become normal doing six Seven eight ten thousand dollar weeks After that point so at one point where You think oh yeah I'll just buy it 50. The end of the week could be at 55.
Could be at 60 and that's where things Get really fast and the bubble is well And truly underway in each of the Previous Cycles the range of the week The day the hour whatever it may be has Surpassed the previous cycle you can see Here this was at the 200 per week it Medically surpassed that if that's a Word two and a half thousand dollars for The week the next cycle we went to about Eight and a half thousand dollars for That Peak so we'll probably be looking At a week that is higher than the Previous cycle as well start somewhere Around 10 and then let your imagination Run wild to the upside I guess you're Starting to see that the worst case Scenario isn't necessarily what price You can buy it at but it's the mind Games that come into play at different Stages in the market and that's why I Try and break down these stages so that You can see where we're up to second and The third stage when we get to that Fourth fifth sixth stage things get Really really crazy and these are those First second and third your Rangers are Normal we're into this stage where we're All comfortable with the same sort of Moves day to day people freak out over a Three percent move to the downside for Bitcoin like we saw in the last few days Wait until that becomes a normal one Hour bar that's when things get super
Crazy and you've got to readjust your Mindset to the market so that leads me On to what else can go wrong or what People are expecting in terms of in this Case The Narrative of a recession what About a recession bitcoin's never seen a Recession what if this is all just part Of a massive bear Market rally and the Market's going to collapse well I want To address the recession term right now Overall big well the stock markets have Continued to go up day after day on Posting here on Twitter so if you're not Already go to the video description Follow me on Twitter this is our daily Bull market update because these are Things that have happened not subjective Not my opinion these are the things that Have happened in the day new daily highs Day after day after day for the s p for The NASDAQ for at the moment now the Dow Jones is back the Russell 2000 new fresh Heights they're breaking out so this Thing is really starting to take off and Addressing the recession Germany is in a Recession German economy enters Recession as inflation hurts consumers This was back in May so a few weeks ago Now this is two quarters of uh GDP that Fell okay so two quarters in a row which Technically is the recession of course This is a different meaning a different Reading for the us but nonetheless that Was that happened in Germany in a
Recession but now take a look at what's Happened from the Germany less than one Percent from a new all-time high there Is the close point six percent from a New all-time high and this was around The call of the recession when the news Came out it dropped it got a little bit Of a fearful higher low started to form And now it's about to break out to new All-time highs this of course can take a Little bit more time maybe we test it What not the point here is this is what A recession has looked like looked like For Germany this is what it has looked Like for the Euro stocks the 50 biggest Companies in in Europe which of course A Lot of them would be German and French And then even The UK which has hit new all-time high Prices early in 2023 it's now putting in Higher lows there's also fears that the UK is going into recession as well but Of course if this happens to the us some Will say well different countries it's Not going to be the same here I beg to Differ this thing is just on a Skyrocketing charge to the Moon which Will get painful in the years to come There will be a bubble there will be a Big pop for now the trend is up and if We do get a recession it seems like even The words recession are just getting Brushed off across traditional markets Around the world pay attention to it
Might not happen but I'm definitely Looking at that as many of these calls For recession they just keep pushing Markets higher and higher that's for the Long game short term however sure we Definitely need to see some pullbacks We've got this on the chart 4 500 to 4 600 for the US so let's pay attention to What's going on in the rest of the world See whether we do get some sort of Pullbacks eventually because the fair And great is extremely high in the US it Is Extreme greed time for the stock Market so this Market is extremely Greedy it's at 80 last time we had Something like this was the February top At 82 and basically prior to that we Didn't have any sort of extreme breed Like this since the all-time high bull Market top in January of 2022 so we're Getting to some extreme levels here Which will require a reset in the market Sentiment but we are a long long way From these lows now well over 20 percent Currently 26 from those lows and looking Closer to the all-time highs again than The lows we're only eight percent down From the all-time highs for the s p Meanwhile the rest of the world has been Putting in new all-time highs as well And like I've been covering it's Probably only a matter of time until the US does the same thing so pay particular Attention to what's going on out there
In the world the world markets seems Like Risk is definitely coming back Which means risk is going it's only a Matter of time before that risk comes Back to BTC after it's already done 100 From 15K to 31k and now is just buying Time until we can reset our own fear and Greed index for that market sentiment to Come back and pump these markets stay Tuned for the short term take a longer Term view on these markets as they are Still setting up for that bigger move to The upside and hopefully I've been able To show you that worst case scenario in Case you're in that full-on bearish camp And of course for the Bulls as well Things are still looking very very Rosy We haven't seen any sort of significant Macro breakdown for Bitcoin or for the Traditional markets I don't know about You but I'm pretty excited to see what Happens over the next 12 months can we Continue to grind through this area of Bitcoin and eventually break these key Levels around that 48 to 52k and we Start to see this thing go on a Mega Run That last 18 months of the bull market That is the exciting time hang out now Now this is the grind then we get the Payoff later on hit that like And Subscribe to the channel we're going to Be here every step of the way no matter Where I am around the world this is the Best part all right guys I'll see you at
The next video Until then take care and Peace out