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12 months ago Bitcoin was in a very Different position not in terms of price But in terms of Market sentiment 12 Months ago the price was relatively the Same after a massive collapse from Luna And UST basically wiping out billions of Dollars of market capitalization in the Cryptocurrency market the following Month in June we also saw another Mega Collapse this time it was around Centralized finance apps but just 12 Months later the price is back to where It was through those extreme Panic Moments back then 12 months ago the Market was going from a bullish Sentiment which was really coming to the End of its move that then plummeted into A massive bearish catastrophe Capitulation formed and depression set In whereas 12 months later right now it Seems like we're on the verge of coming Out of those depressive times but we're Not there just yet the good news is it Seems like things are flipping not only From what we can see with the market Psychology but what the technicals are Showing us the data the facts from these Black and white graphs here that we look At day in and day out now I've also got Some other massive news for you looking At cycle lows in the NASDAQ what has This got to do with Bitcoin well we're Looking at the tech space and the AI Hype is this actually going to set us
Free and boom to new all-time highs and Come across into the Bitcoin space some Of those beautiful games or is this just The complacency bounce setting up to Then dump into lower prices I have got a Ton of data that is going to blow your Mind now it could be fortunately or Unfortunately depending on which side of The fence you're sitting what prices you Are waiting for so without further Ado Hit that like And subscribe check out The link top of the video description For our free trading workshops we'll let You know via email once that is released Let's kick it off with BTC we've had the Monthly a month of May close out we're At twenty seven thousand two hundred Dollars note on the back of this move to The upside we've had extreme Catastrophic capitulation type events Yet the market has continued up so it's Something we continue to cover because These are the areas that we're looking At for lows on the channel and we've got A June low we got a November low we're Looking out for an October here which Happened in the stock markets and now The market has moved away from that Point we were looking for a very very Significant low in March and we got that We've got the banking crisis low so this Is all part of the reason why we're Looking at the market heading up not Only in terms of technicals but in terms
Of news items basically major news Events that have changed the direction Here or the way the market is Anticipating the direction the same sort Of major news events and now the market Is moving to the upside after those Events rather than further downside After those events so a massive flip Here is occurring but not necessarily With retail or with other major analysts Or Traders but you can see it happening In the chart so another thing that we Want to have a look at today is the Money supply so the M2 money supply the Main thing to note here is that yes the Money supply has continued up over time There's more and more money being Printed and I guess when there's more Liquidity in the market basically more Money coming out that has led to higher Prices across many different assets Cryptos Bitcoin stock markets real Estate all that sort of stuff so money Supply go up markets go up so this is The fearful thing that many are looking At well the money supply is coming down Why aren't the markets coming down it's Just a matter of time until they come Down one thing that we've looked at is When we look at an average here on the Channel basically the move the trend to The upside we overshot that Mark by a Lot through the c19 pandemic and now it Seems like maybe we're coming back down
To test that level and maybe we continue Up from that maybe we even only just Fall to this level and then continue up Honestly say no one knows this is up to The fed and how much money they decide To print so all we can see from the data That we actually have is that we are far Beyond the natural uh trend of the money Supply we're well and truly above that Therefore it's probably not unlikely That the market is going to continue up Because we have more money in the system Than what we were previously printing Even though the short-term trend is down So that's something always to Differentiate here the long-term Trend And the short-term Trend long-term trend Is up short-term trend is down we still Have more money in the system than what Was anticipated before the massive money Printing happened due to c19 so just Looking at that money supply which is Going to come in handy for the next part Of the analysis the big stuff with the NASDAQ this stuff that just almost blows All of the downside analysis to to bed Because it just hasn't happened before This is going to help us understand that Particular cycle so we're at 15 and a Half trillion dollars back in 2020 we're Now well we now go to a peak of about 21.5 trillion so about six trillion Dollar move keep that in mind throughout 2 000 to 2002 it was only about a
Trillion dollars printed a trillion on Four and a half to five and a half Trillion thereabouts is a pretty big Percentage same sort of deal here we've Gone from 15 and a half to twenty one And a half so over 30 printed there uh Similar to what was back in the 2000 Boom but in terms of how quickly this Came into the market was very very quick In a matter of months so that's Something to keep in mind let's move on To BTC and the money supply you may have Seen this chart before being posted and Talked about in terms of where the Actual low came in for Bitcoin so Basically it's just uh identifying how Much money was in the system and how Much Bitcoin actually went up if you Were to account for that extra supply of Money so a nice quick measure here we Can go from the top of the 2017 cycle to The top of the 2021 cycle Bitcoin Rose About a hundred and fifty percent but if We look at it from the point of view Just in terms of price without taking Into account how much money was printed It was 250 so there's your 2017 top There's your 2021 top so 250 now you can Do this all the way from the tops to the Bottoms and get an idea of how far the Markets come down and basically where All these levels are looking back over History so keep a note of where this Cycle low is we're looking at the price
Of 15 and a half K which is obviously Above the 14 000 top that came in 2019 and sitting Somewhere I think 15 and a half Somewhere around the middle of these Bars at the top there above those closes So that's where that low came in but if We take into account the M2 money supply You can see the actual low came in just Above the top of the October bar and in This zone of the tops of 2019 so you've Got June July August I came in came Within those levels it also came in just Underneath the close of the blow off Monthly Bar so that was the top that made it to Twenty thousand dollars and it came in Below that close so if we look at a Price range somewhere around this zone So basically above the October low but Also within the tops of the bath top and This area here go back to bitcoin Then we can see that it was somewhere Within this Zone Somewhere above the top of October and If we go further back it was basically Down at this zone so it was roughly Through the middle here if we want to Average it out just a little higher at That point so these this price level Here is around 12 and a half thousand Dollars and just above the October top Is 14. so call it for a nice easy round Number somewhere around 13 13 and a half
Thousand that's basically the low that Bitcoin has put in through the bear Market cycle so for those that were Waiting for the Fourteen thousand dollar Low it probably happened if the money Supply continued up at a steady Pace at The normal rate that we've seen before Not at this particular big blow-off rate So potentially that 14 000 low has Already happened so you may have seen This before we're just updating this Because this can give us an idea about The NASDAQ as well and some timing of The NASDAQ which might already have Shown that the low is in which we Already think the lowers in based on Other technicals but for those that have Been waiting for this massive apps like A.com collapse it's possibly already in So understanding this then allows us to Understand what's potentially next Because we're starting to see a big boom For the AI sector so we're starting to See a hype form for AI so is what we're Trying to identify here is is the AI Hype just getting started or is this Leading to a blow off top that's going To be a lower top and then collapse the Market so we're looking at both sides Here to understand the bearish narrative Are we getting a complacency bounce we Form a further downside or is this the Beginning Of the start of the height which then
Will blow up this Market which will blow Up the s p which will blow up Bitcoin as Well it's all part of the same game Everyone's looking for more risk and Higher Returns the Wall Street cheat Sheet this comes in handy to start to Get an understanding of where we are in Terms of what people are feeling and Thinking about the market rather than Being a little more logical or objective Using chart data they start to get these Sort of emotions throughout the Cycles Now we're potentially in this disbelief And I understand many are still thinking That we're in complacency and we're About to dump but I'll show you that in Terms of timing in just a moment it's Probably not likely due to the time Cycles that or have occurred in the Market already the data the objective Stuff which can't be denied because we Have a few analysts that are starting to Flip and this is not pointing at anyone I take I pay very particular attention Here to what's going on in the market And what they've been saying and then What they are now doing in some cases Here we've seen many Market analysts in The case here no hate whatsoever calling For bigger downside now we're starting To get a flip in what they've been Saying I'm not going to have gone about This too much more go and check out my Twitter I've got a a bit of a post here
About it as well to identify that a Little more but I'm paying very Particular attention to what some of the Other sources are saying about the Markets and how they are starting to Flip in terms of how they read the Market and what they think is happening Next what we've been talking about all Along throughout this bottom you can Obviously find all the receipts to on The channel is that we're looking at This as being the base for the next and Final stage of a bull market which will Will probably get some sort of blow off Top maybe just a regular top but Something will have a blow off top and Then we get a Mega collapse in years to Come we're looking at the 18.6 year Cycle but for now this is the first Stage of it and to get get to that point Of the top we have to go through Disbelief we have to go through the Hope After everyone's sort of pushed away From the disbelief and the Bears must Remain in the Market at this point like The Bears will be there telling us that There's more and more downside and that This is all just silly nonsense games And it's going to go over the top Exactly but they got the timing Completely wrong they're still in denial As the market continues up and they only Come into the market at the end here as Everything gets crazy and people just
Say you're so stupid for missing the Entire bull market because you've been Bearish the whole time on the way up Once we get to that point there then we Get the first collapse and that's when It happens again we don't get the Collapse from the low points just yet so Keep this in mind as we continue to Climb the ranks here for The NASDAQ for the s p real estate Market Bitcoin and crypto so we've got a Couple of narratives in mind we've got Being AI for one and we have the market Psychology in mind we had a look at What's potentially happening here this Is probably not the complacency bounce Because of the technicals major major Technicals here that we've covered many Many times before looking at the Logarithmic downtrend the monthly swing Tops that have now been broken and the Move to the upside after so many months To the upside after the cycle low so now We're looking at the objective stuff Here what has happened in the market now I've got a post here that I'm going to Put up on Twitter but just looking at Some of these major statistics here the Statistics seven months later from a Cycle low of October 2022 so we're Starting the count from low none of this Sort of made up stuff where people sort Of grab things left right and center It's from a key point in the market so
We've had the highest monthly close in 14 months so this is the most ever so Where we are now for the NASDAQ is 14 Months ago it was a high close and we're Basically 14 months from that point this Is the highest close we've had in 14 Months this has not happened in history For the NASDAQ as it goes up from a Cycle life seven months later now I'm Using seven months because that's how Long we are from the low we're seven Months up from that particular load We're also looking at it's in it's 38 38 Years of History the NASDAQ has only Once Fallen to a new low after being up For seven months but that is not Breaking a monthly swing top just up the Only time that happened was in 2001 and This of course is what most people Reference 2001 so we've got September 11 Happened everyone knows about that Extreme event in the market Seven months later is this bar but no Monthly tops were broken no monthly Swing tops were broken sure monthly tops Were broken but not the swing tops which Are far far far more important there's Seven and then we had that final stage To the low that's it.com low you have One two three four five six more months That's it the low is in okay so if They're still waiting for that then they Basically have the next six months so You've got to get this new low in okay
Otherwise you're still just behind the Eight ball okay so there's the low Seven months later still slightly higher But no monthly swing tops were broken And no uh logarithmic downtrend was Broken either so keep that in mind here We go there's a logarithmic downtrend Was not broken only broke after the Bottom Right so the next thing It's never fallen to a new low after Breaking the log downtrend okay so it Hasn't broken the log downtrend you have To look at this in uh context of where It is in the cycle as well which we've Covered but in terms of the logarithmic Downtrend looking at these highs we did Not get a break in a support and then it Break down again doesn't happen does not Happen you can even go back to many of The previous major Cycles it has not Happened maybe it happens in the future Hasn't happened yet all right it's never Fallen to a new low after breaking a Monthly swing top so here are the areas That I'm looking at here there's a break Of the monthly swing top seven months Later we're up at new highs going back To the Gulf War in 1990. one prior to That we had the Black Monday major Collapse in the NASDAQ monthly swing Tops seven months later it did not break Down we did not break the Black Monday Bottom Market held up sure we've got a
Slightly lower low with a higher close Keep that in mind and the way we go we Had another major war in 1990 most of us Went around then I was born in 1986 I Don't remember that war but that's a Very significant event in the market a Huge one now of course we go to the.com Boom logarithmic downtrend monthly swing Tops none of those are broken until we Got to this point here it broke and then We're on our way to the next top The GFC logarithmic downtrend again you Can even draw another one in here from Top to top to top on the way down was Not broken on the way up it eventually Broke and then held now we can get it Even closer using this top here a nice Support the way the market goes all Right so that's our GFC load getting Back to these points here seven months After a low Seven months up we broke all these other Tops and it was probably the highest Close in nine months okay so seven Months from the low it never came back And broke the low keep that in mind We only have that one option here.com Low seven months as well hit that low Came up broke all the down Trends so They will that all those other Conditions were met Move forward again China bubble 2015. This is all the back testing that we do For the TA for the time cycles for the
Price Cycles this is why it's so Important to understand where you are in Terms of the the market itself so the Cycle and get those figures right get Those starting points right because if You don't have a proper starting point Then you're screwed a whole lot of data Is just a waste of time China bubble here's a giant China bubble Pop we had a break of the monthly swing Tops seven months later the market never Went lower now this was a minor one this Was not one of the major Cycles but Nonetheless there is still a significant Drop this was one of the most Significant drops the market had seen Since the GFC low and this was talked About a lot everyone was sort of Freaking out that we'd gone up for six Years without a significant correction That was the most significant correction In that period and seven months later Market had not seen a new low All right we break past the all-time High after that period Broke past the all-time high after that Period now we have a couple more points To get through recession fears this is What happened in 2018 okay so that's the Significant event seven months later new All-time high Market goes on to the next Peak which is one of the most recent Ones the covert lockdowns so we had the Collapse into that seven months later
Yes a ton of money printing Market is up Again So we've gone through many points here We have the lockdowns we have the Recession fears we have the China bubble We have the GFC we have the.com low we Have the September 11 low I think my numbers right one two three Four five six seven eight on eight Occasions only one of those times did The market go lower but it didn't meet Either either of the other conditions The monthly swing top was not broken the Logarithmic downtrend was not broken And in fact another condition was not Broken here we have the 50 retracement None of these times did the market get Back to its 50 retracement and was able To fall to a new life so none of these Got past their 50 whereas what's Happening now is we have gotten past our 50 level as well so I keep adding more And more data to this more objective Data and the market just keeps coming up Trumps to the bull side yes there could Be a possibility where this is the one Time in history that it doesn't happen But all I'm trying to do here is put the Probabilities onto my site as a Trader Investor and show that this has been the Bull market that most are missing out on You've got the log downtrend here the Monthly break tops breaking seven months Later we're at 14 month highs
There is a lot of proof to show that This is the low and not a complacency Bounce we've added in the time aspect The price Support and resistance levels being the 50 we've added in the market psychology We've added in the market narratives in Case uh we needed a reason for this to Go up you know the AI pump is Potentially here and we'll have some Other sort of reasons later on just like What happened in 2000 uh late 90s into The 2000 Peak there was all these Reasons for the market to be pumping but It was at the end there was a couple of Years left which is what I think is is Happening right now we don't have long In the grand scheme of things a couple Of years on a 20-year cycle is only 10 Whereas for most they're probably going To miss out on this and come very late To the party now that you're loaded with All of that data what do you think is Going to happen next do you think the NASDAQ and the S P 500 are going to Break to new cycle lows that means Bitcoin would also have to break to a New cycle low as well as it's a high Risk asset let me know in the comments Section down below thank you again for All of your support on the channel like Subscribe and let me know where you're Sharing the content as well I'll see you Guys at the next video Until Then peace
Out