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Bitcoin's finally taking a rest day it Is now sitting at 29 900 as we touched Out at thirty thousand eight hundred Dollars but is now any time to rest for The rest of us I don't think so and That's what I'm looking at in today's Video we have a lot of new narratives Coming up and thanks to you guys who Have shown a ton of interest in the Videos hitting the like And subscribe You know I'll get it in there I think Now is a perfect time to discuss what The next narrative could be even if it's Not the next narrative it has been going On and on and on so let's Debunk the next narrative or a narrative Of the past so that we can move on from It a lot of high-profile professional Traders on YouTube on Twitter have been Talking about this narrative and yes I'll get to the narrative don't worry We'll get there so that's why I think It's important to have a look at it Because it does present a really good Logical reason for why the market should Collapse why the stock market should Collapse why Bitcoin should collapse why The prices should come down it's Unsustainable it presents a very logical Reason for why that should happen However I want to show you many reasons Why that's not the case even though that This economic data would normally make You think that the market should
Collapse all right so like I said before Hit that like And subscribe thanks again For all your support in the last couple Of videos the comments have been Absolutely incredible I didn't know how Many of you guys were out there that Have been finding a lot of value from it And this is pretty much I guess my style Is to explain The narratives explain the news even Though I'm a pure ta professional this Is how I make my money I prefer the Charts but I like to understand those Narratives because I know that that's What the psyche is about and like you Guys know especially at these lower Times in the market before we get to the Hype at the extreme Peaks you know that This is the biggest thing the biggest Thing is our mindset so I want to break That one down in a less than a 20 minute Video for you today because I've got to Get off to the airport I have just I'm Leaving Jakarta today I did a video with Phil yesterday stay tuned to that on the Channel and you'll get more of the 18.6 Year cycle update now I know I've got a Lot of new viewers stick with us this Will make far more sense for the macro Cycle coming up so looking at this Comment from yesterday this is what Sparked the thought here today just Trying to tap into what you guys are Wanting and what you guys are seeing one
Of the things one thing I've come to Notice after listening to Jace in the Past here is that he's usually always Correct prior to the Market's narrative I'm not trying to blow my own trumpet Here let's forget that part okay so Always correct prior to the Market's Narrative shifting I started diving way Deeper into cycle analysis understanding The psychology of how Cycles work in all Markets I've come down and just Understand that this is one of the most Powerful tools you can have as an Investor or Trader yes understanding What they're trying to do and present to Us and what I'm trying to present to you Today is the money supply now like I Said in the intro you may have heard This from many high-profile people in The crypto space with hundreds and Hundreds of thousands of Subscribers who talk about the money Supply the M2 money supply and how it's Showing up is Being negative money supply is coming Out of the market liquidity is draining Out of the market and I have seen that In the comments section actually as well People saying well it's not going to Happen the liquidity is drying up and Once that happens the markets are going To collapse I want to show you Potentially why that isn't the case so That's the problem that we have let's
Try and break it down with data and of Course the charts as well so this is the Problem we Face the the economic problem Here where the money is draining out of The system That is what we're being told is a Narrative but I don't think that's the Case of course I don't I'm always the Contrarian here when it comes to these These data points the reason why I guess I'm a little bit more confident as well Is we know that 90 maybe you haven't Heard this stat before but 90 of Investors and Traders end up losing Their money they end up losing their Initial Capital they lose a lot of money In the markets most people do so with That in mind I have to think that most Of the data that comes out is Incorrect or at least it's being Analyzed in an incorrect way otherwise Everyone will be getting it right Otherwise everyone will be making money And the markets would keep going up Forever and no one would be losing money If everyone was right but when everyone Starts to point to the same sort of Thing in this case you know the money Supply it's in a negative now so you can See there is zero and there is more Money coming out of the system than Going into it even though we see a Little bit go in here and there overall It's in a negative so that's what I want
To have a look at because I'm thinking Well the markets are still going up the 18.60 Cycles here the Bitcoin cycle is Has the low's been put in and the Cycles Here for the bull market I think this is going to be incorrect Yet again some other sort of data So That's the premise here that's the Theory money comes out markets must Collapse here are examples of that going Into the 1800s et cetera Etc the early 1900s so it's good that at least there's A lot more data here because normally When we see these pieces of data or Economic Data or whatever right it's always a Very short period when I say short maybe They only look back to the to the 80s Maybe they'll look back to 2000 maybe They only look back to the 60s in this Case we've gone a lot further that's Good to see But the main point I put here is luckily We don't trade the economy we trade the Charts it's that's the first thing the Charts are up it's a bull market go with The trend not my opinion it's what is Actually happening in the market go with The trend okay so uh this comes up next So they point to all the times when the Money comes out of the system and all of The corrections and the recessions and The collapses and the depressions so you
Start to think logically which makes Sense like you're not having a go with The people individually it's more the Idea that we're trying to break down Here and break down that narrative so That we can have a clearer mind when it Comes to our own Investments it Logically it makes sense well if there Was a collapsed depression recession Every time there was a contraction in The money supply well then it has to Happen again right well I mean it didn't Happen for a hundred years we didn't go Under that for 100 years maybe for me at Least the first thing that alarm Bells Go off is maybe there's a lot of money Still in the system and maybe be there's Still a lot more cash to go into the Markets even though the FED is Contracting even though the money supply Is Contracting maybe there's still a lot More money sitting on the sidelines Which we know of and there is data for That too which we've pointed out in Previous videos as well there's still a Lot more cash sitting out there waiting Remember you can't get a collapse when Everyone is expecting a collapse that's Another big thing so 100 years maybe There's more money out there okay let's Have a look where do we go next from This one all right so let's go back to The first post here and then you can see This so I've pointed this out on the
Channel before this is the M2 money Supply look at it going up up and up and Up and up and up and up and then from The pandemic it just shot from if I Remember correctly is about that sort of 14 or 15-ish trillion up to about 21 Trillion so we've threw in six trillion Dollars and it started to come down from That point it was around 18 trillion but Look at the pandemic level we're still Well and truly above that and in terms Of the growth rate I'll draw my line here we're still above That level two so we could still come Back down to that to a more average area Of increase And would still have more money in the System than we had prior to the pandemic So if we have more money in the system Than we had at the peak of the pandemic Maybe logically we could say that the Prices of the market should be higher Than that point than the point of where The market collapsed and we know that The markets collapsed from 33. call it 3400 for a round number we're now Currently at 44. so we're a thousand Points higher than the peak prior to the Pandemic collapse So that kind of makes sense when you Look at how much money is in the system There is approximately 18 trillion this Is needs to be updated last I looked at It was around that 18 trillion Mark yes
It's coming down as we saw in this first Chart because money is coming out of the System But the prior to the pandemic was around 15 trillion so you can say it's another 20 more in the bank and meaning there's 20 more in the market so what's 20 on The top here Well 20 somewhere around 4 100. so the Market's overshot where it currently Sits if we look at that on a uh you know An average basis there but the markets On average they're always pricing in the Next thing to come they're always Pricing in whether it's going to be a Boom or a bust maybe they're pricing in More money to come there's a number of Things and it's important to note that We don't want to try and take the Narratives too far we just want to try And understand what the majority are Thinking now and the majority of Thinking well money is coming out of the System that therefore markets must Collapse it's really quite linear but You just need to take one or two more Steps and put the pieces together now of Course I could be wrong I have to say that I Don't think I am that's why I'm playing The market the way I am that's why I'm Putting my money where my mouth is and Not just a talking head online not only Just to talk ahead online but I'm
Actually doing uh I'm investing my money Because of what I am seeing in the Market and I think these sort of calls Are all going to be incorrect The other like I said at the beginning Of this there are a lot of people who Are looking at the M2 money supply as a Reason for the market to collapse Because the money is Contracting the Money supply is Contracting I don't Think that's going to be the case and I've got a couple of other chances I Want to show you for that as well But before we get there BTC I just Wanted to point out where we currently Sit we're at thirty thousand dollars but The point here is it's possible that 26k Is gone so the reason I want to explain That is one we have all of those Narratives that come in and especially When we're at the lows The Narrative get Really strong the fear is there et Cetera Etc I've pointed out here that 26k is probably Out of the question now easy to say now They're at 30. so I'm not even going to Bag that one right now but the big one That I was looking at back in February And March was 22k you might have Recalled this tweet which is why I Mentioned now go follow my Twitter and Instagram because I post this stuff Much more easily especially when I'm Traveling I could I can do a tweet easy
And then I can do a video but I did this At the time while it was under 22k Bitcoin under 22k is a buy zone now That's simple that's what any old moon Boy could could say and then repost it Later they could do it at every thousand Dollars on the way up I get it how can You trust this don't just follow along For a while or do your own research as Well the reason I had 22k is the Structure you can see the market just Was finding it very difficult to stay Under 22k and when it did get under There it could only manage to stay under There on some of the biggest news some Of the worst news that we've had in 2023 Banking collapse and that's the only way It could stay under there after that It's got the hell out of 22k zone 22k is Over never going back at least for this Cycle okay Bitcoin breaks down we go to Zero again whatever right that's what I'm talking about I'm talking about this Cycle It's possible that the same thing has Happened now for 26 okay I see that Because we touched it here we touched 26 There we touched it again here we Touched it here and then we only managed To stay under there for those last Couple of days of the low low around the 14th and the 15th of June and then it Flew away from that zone looks quite Similar to what happened here it flew
Away from that zone there and I've Mentioned many times before bitcoin's Not going back to 18K I still see some Comments about that but yeah it's not Bitcoin's more than likely not going to Break that is that is that a good way to Say that it's very unlikely a bitcoin's Going under 20K and I think at this Stage now having touched that double top At 25 and a half thousand tested that Level and Basic basically took off to the Moon After retesting that double top I think Now it's pretty unlikely that we'll see Under 25 000 again potentially 26 000. So yeah that's what I'm looking at there If we start to consolidate at these Higher levels especially above that sort Of 28 and a half and put in a another Higher low break 31 it's over you're not Going to see that underneath 26 again Unless we get something really drastic Which would then mean we would be Grinding a lot longer and things would Be much much worse but I don't think That is the case and I've got a few of Those charts to say why looking at the Stock markets remember these are the Drivers of Everything the drivers of the economy The drivers of uh money coming into the System and of course investors getting a Little bit more excited with their money S p is still up yes we're having a
Little bit of a pause we're on a weekly Here if we go down to it daily we need To have a cool off we talked about that This thing has just been skyrocketing From the March bottom with a Consolidation in the middle skyrocketing Again we need a consolidation Okay so Stock market is up and it's still Holding above key support levels you can See they're in that 4300 points and the More important one here is back at 4200 Which was a key level to break out of so The main markets are still bullish I Can't see that changing for the next Couple of years after such a significant Breakout after a bear market after a low Getting put in and after breaking Significant 50 levels like it's it's Just not going to happen For now there will be a collapse Logically it sounds like it should be a Collapse now The market is telling you otherwise same Sort of deal here for the NASDAQ they're The two things I've repeated it multiple Times in previous videos so if you don't Believe what you're hearing here that's Fine we'll continue to update it and in Future videos otherwise go back and Check out the other videos as we Continue to call the low forming the Transitional period forming we have Broken out of the transitional period Transitional meaning going from bear to
Bull talked about that for months on end While everyone else is waiting and Hoping for a collapse and some of them Still are we've broken out of that zone Now it's not going to happen speaking of Which the vix just hit a new Fresh low Yes the vix comes up as a reason for a Collapse to occur not at the beginning It doesn't happen once we start to drop Back into the zone and I've called The Zone around 17 on the volatility index There is a 17 there is your line and Then down to about 11. that's kind of Like a nice trading range for the vix While the stock markets are in a bull Market it and just overnight just the Last 24 hours the vix is the daily Dropping to new fresh lows if we get Spikes in this thing that's okay because We are now in a bull market spikes are Fine you can see in previous bull Markets that you've seen significant Spikes out of the vix some under the Tune of 24 on the reading here yes they Can spike a little bit harder and higher That's okay too but the main thing is The bull market has begun just like Every other time in the past after a Significant drop or a significant pump Out of the vix bull market Zone That's we get those lows in the s p These are lows in the s p at the top Okay so it's absolutely fine to do that But we'll continue to Trend in this zone
So there is another key signal there Bull markets are on macro speaking Pullbacks are fine Now the other one here is the DR Horton So the biggest home builder in America Just hit new fresh highs profits are Going to be coming and the market is Pricing that in now remember when the DHI Dropped just a little bit here from a Previous fresh new all-time high I've Said again new all-time high 112 down to 104 big freaking deal who Cares but that was when they showed Um some really solid losses on their Balance sheet here so that was I believe It was around either February or that Was the collapse there or this little Move here They weren't making profits it was all Over social media People talking about well the home Builders are going down this is it it's Over housing blah blah blah guess what New all-time highs again their pricing In profits down the track they're not Pricing in what the reports are now I I'll leave it there that's something to Discuss in another one that is how Narratives get built people look at What's going on now but then understand Or they they think they understand that The markets are forward-thinking yet They talk about the the the profits
Earnings reports from companies now it Doesn't make any sense that part let's Forget that we'll talk about another Video main thing is the markets are up The housing market is up that leads me All the way back to My interview with Phil that'll be coming Out next week so stay tuned to the Channel plenty more coming up Bitcoin Stock markets real estate cycle Everything on the macro it's your home Of the macro cycle analysis like And Subscribe I'll be back in Bali tomorrow so a nice New background yet again I'll see you Guys at the next one until then take Care and peace out