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Markets have stopped in anticipation for The CPI announcements that has come and Gone Bitcoin basically where it started The day yesterday and for the rest of The markets they are breaking to new Grounds can you believe it in this time Where we should be seeing a collapse in Prices in real estate in stocks in Everything these markets are breaking Two new highs for 2023. I want to show You what that looks like on the chart What most are missing out on and how we Have just gone through the biggest reset In history using the fear and greed Index all right guys the segue here is To like And subscribe I had a joke about The background changing I've moved Offices I've got a nice little plant Here anyway on with the show after we Say thanks to our Channel sponsors buy Bit bitget links are down below lots of Sign up bonuses without the need to Trade and of course swiftx for the Aussies air doubling of the BTC all Right so let's get straight into the Data got a lot of the CPI stuff to Quickly cover the S P 500 of course Breaking into some new ground but even Bigger than that is the NASDAQ the one That everyone is waiting for massive Collapses on because they're saying it's Overvalued all right let's continue on With what's going on right now CPI has Come through we have the month over
Month CPI for the US 0.4 and what Happened was 0.4 so nothing really Changed that now CPI year over year was Slightly different we had the forecast At five came in at 4.9 and then the core CPI month over month forecast was 0.3 Came in at 0.4 so overall the markets Have reacted to this relatively well Considering nothing really changed you Can see from the S P 500 if you like Your little colored candles we have a Closing price of 4152 we need to cover the the macro Markets before we hit onto BTC and some Of the the big resets that I can't Believe how big this reset has been yet People are still calling for bigger Downside so this is what has happened Overnight with the CPI basically as Where it started from the last month but We do see some increased volume compared To the last three days so that's a a Nice sign early on but we're still Waiting for this nice close above 41.55 Which is the 50 level the big 50 level Here from the all-time high to the October cycle low most likely the bear Market bottom something that we've been Covering on the channel for months while Many are still looking for further Collapses in these markets so this is Something we have pointed out that we Believe that we would see in October low Based on Decades of cycle analysis there
Are plenty of times where we see October Lows December lows which is that period Right there and March lows very Significant lows in the cycle June is Also one of those periods and we're Coming up to that next month so let's See whether we get some sort of other Low come into the market but I'm not Anticipating as I've said many many Times before like a broken record not Anticipating that the March banking Crisis low gets taken out or the October Low I doubt this one's going to get Taken out and I doubt anywhere under Here is going to consolidate and start To break down considering where we where We currently are in the cycle the nice Break of the log downtrend all we're Waiting for now is a nice break of these Overhead resistance levels at around 4200 points onto the NASDAQ and this is The big one that has broken out again Here is the resistance at thirteen Thousand three hundred and forty Yesterday very high volume something we Haven't seen since late March so coming Up to nearly two months where we saw This last leg of big volume around the Banking crisis low and just after that Low so this is a good sign as especially On a breakout of resistance which is Held as resistance for over a month so Approximately six weeks now this level At 13 300 has been resistance so granted
It is only one day that we've broken Above it on good volume and closed above That level we need to see another few More days there but these are the good Early signs even if we start to fall Back under let's see whether we can hold The ground here and just start to Accumulate at higher and higher levels Before we go on that next test and there Is the test there there's a resistance Thirteen thousand six hundred at fifty Percent and that's your August high as Well at about 13 700 to 800 so once we can really clear These High 13 000 levels for the NASDAQ Then you've got a nice strong structure Back into the tech stocks but overall Many of the major tech stocks which has Been a worry for some of the analysts These major tech stocks are getting very Close to their all-time highs again so The analysts waiting for lower and lower Prices because there's collapsed have Now just missed out and are basically Buying back at the previous top prices Yes there are a lot of shorts in the Market but they're eventually going to Have to buy back as well once this Market gets squeezed and yes I'm taking The bullish side here but the charts are Telling us something they're saying that The market is up they're showing higher Lows and higher highs with five percent Away from the all-time high here for
Apple these are some of those strongest Stocks as well so keep an eye on those While the markets are making new highs And getting very close to New all-time Highs the rest of the market has been Resetting and it's been resetting for Many many months now this is a chart of The fear and greed model so this is for The S P 500 above the red line is Excessive optimism below the green line Is excessive pessimism so I just need to Get those two the right way around the Market sentiment is something we spend a Lot of time on analyzing and back Testing and seeing the patterns and what We can see from the data is from July Through to October of 2022 so over 12 Months the majority of the time was Spent in the fearful Zone and so this Goes all the way through to October Which was the cycle low we had many Significant lows like we can see here From June 2022 and then the big one here Which happened in May which was higher Up now all these other times were other Significant bearish events in the market We had February and March when the Russia Ukraine war broke out we had the Dips at the top of the market this was Pretty heavy into the China talk if you Ever remember the headlines of Eva Grande going down and everything like That which never happened and then like We know now coming back through to the
End of 2022 China started to pump Billions into their economy and so we Had all of these fearful events which Basically reset the market and what we Can anticipate from this point is the Likelihood of the market trending up Possibly getting back into some more Optimistic views of what is happening And that'll probably come through once We start to break the 4200 level but how Is this the longest resetting in history Well if we take a snippet back now that We've got a picture of how long this Pessimistic view had lasted on the Market we have a look here this was from June July of 2021 through to October That is approximately 15 months under This Zone sure with a few little spikes To the upside but as we'll see there are No other times in history that the Market has spent so much time in the Pessimistic territory you had one period Through here in 2014 2015 but a long Time out of that zone pushing into new All-time highs you can go back through To the GFC and just after the GFC in 2010 as the market started to climb out Of those lows again a few options here But the time between the pessimistic Views was quite a long time there so I Think that invalidates the entire piece That the market was spending so much Time in the pessimistic Zone here it Just it just wasn't so we go back to the
GFC the top here in October of 20 2007 You've got pessimistic time all through Here but there was still a fair bit of Time spent out of the pessimistic Zone The pessimism started around early 2007 Dropped back into it in July August of 2007 then we had the peak right through Here where there was a lot of optimism It dropped again In November dropped again in 2008 2008 2008 and then finally into 2009 right here so there was a fair bit Of time during that top and then all the Way into that cycle low but note Something quite significant here we have A look at how the market started to Climb out of that low like we've covered Many times before when it comes to Cryptocurrencies here is the low on the Pessimism right through here in October That's a good month for a low isn't it In October 2008 yes there was a slightly Lower low in in November and then you Had the final low in March so some very Significant lows to this period but look At what was happening to the confidence In the market to the fear and greed you Can see that this was all lining up to Give us a final low before the market Took off from that point so I spent a Lot of time in the pessimistic Zone Starting to climb out as the market fell Down there is your Divergence and then The market took off in the opposite
Direction we can take this back through The entire history and even going back To the.com crash we didn't see anything Like what we saw at the GFC 2008 2009 And then what we've just recently seen Through 2021 and 2022 you can check here That we've got a crash into the Pessimism in 2000 so this is right near The peak there then we had another small Period another period and another period But overall the market was climbing out Of the fear and greed getting into the Optimism while the price was still Falling so there was another Divergence There at the lows is that similar to What we've seen today there it is right There you got the price dropping you've Got the fear lessening so more greed Coming into the market even though we're Still in extreme pessimism you can see That there is a Divergence there between The price dropping and the fear running Out and the fear is running out because It's been so fearful for so long around This top so that is essentially the big Reset that has already occurred on the S P which is probably why we continue to See higher prices and we're not seeing These big pushes to the downside while The media is trying to tell us that we Should be seeing bigger pushes so let's Get my face back into the action and What this looks like on the crypto fear And greed index we're seeing a similar
Sort of thing here we're getting some Resistance as we've been anticipating Through this area of 80 to 60 or 60 to 80 right in that middle Zone there of About 70. we've got some resistance Eventually I suspect that crypto and Bitcoin will get fearful again it'll Drop under 40. but whether that happens Now or in the next few months yet to be Seen I'm not going to try and call that Just yet but I will say that we'll Probably drop into this Zone at least a Few more times before we kick off into That major bull market like we did in 2020 and 2021 so there's a lot going on In terms of Market sentiment in the Stock market in real estate in crypto And Bitcoin it's not necessarily going To show up in the price in major Drawdowns and I'll show you what I mean Right now in terms of where people are Expecting these markets to fall to in The past for BTC we've seen major drops We've seen 40 so we've seen 50 just Looking at the previous bull market so This was the accumulation period in 2015 Then you had the reaccumulations in 2016 And then in 2017 you had multiple all Reaccumulations but you're basically at The end of the cycle there and so the First dump was 48 but this was still in The accumulation Zone the next you had 40 the next 40 the next 40 these ones Here are also quite big themselves
They're about 30 odd 35 but I really Want to focus on these first few because This is what a lot of people are getting Tied up with that Bitcoin does do 30 40 50 I expect that to continue in the Future we'll definitely see them but It's important to note how these 40 Occurred and you can see from this first One it came from a very big fast push to The upside unsustainable it was like a Mean coin this looks like a meme coin Going to the Moon we don't see that Right now for BTC not saying that it Can't dump 40 or 50 percent but I want To swing the probabilities in my favor And sure if I saw this move happen bam Probabilities are on the Bitcoin will go Down 40 50 from wherever that peak come Comes in but if we're not seeing a nice Big pump to the upside like we saw here Then we could probably expect a little Less of a dump what we're seeing here 24 Take it to this peak here about 25 so Moving forward again this is a few more Back testing options a few more Strategies here you can see that during The market running up out of the covert Crash so this major dump here which was Over 50 percent uh going from the peak In February to the dump that was 63 and Just for that really fast period there For those few days it was 58 so barring That Black Swan event and Black Swan Events are events that we can't
Anticipate that's why they called a Black Swan you don't anticipate black Swans but all of these moves to the Downside are quite systematic you've got 19 this is going to be less this is Obviously less than 13 you've got Another 19 19.7 you've got another 15 top to the Low here before the market started to Move to the upside you have a 21 this is A pretty significant dump to the Downside through August uh into September before the market really Started to take off into the bull market You get into the bull market when things Get more volatile uh markets pushing up Higher faster and it could only do 31 We're not in this stage of the market Just yet and of course we've got the Rest of these moves to the downside all Quite similar top to bottom all going to Be about that 30-ish or so percent 25 And then comes the major dump because The market was up hard and fast for Quite a long period of time if you think We're in that sort of region right now I can't help you but I don't see us in This sort of region just yet I think That's going to come in time but what We're currently seeing in the market is Approximately 10 13 12 drops at the most Extreme cases which was the banking Crisis collapse the big stuff the really Really big thing that took over the news
For a couple of weeks there 22.5 percent So so let's use the worst case scenario That we have seen in the last few months In this run up from November in last six Months with the most Mega collapse that The markets have seen in this period so That we can measure it against something Relevant and go down 22.57 22.59 takes us out at twenty four Thousand dollars so dead on 24K which is Basically at that level that I don't Expect the market to get much further Down or close underneath and I've posted That yesterday on Twitter so if you're Not following definitely go do that Link's in the top of the video or in the Middle of the video description there You go something different there and you Can follow along there for some of the Updates that I'm doing uh based on what Is happening at the time in the market Something quicker because obviously a Video takes a little bit longer and so I'm just looking here the macro picture Still looks intact macro upside big Stuff but short term yes we have Pullbacks so I posted this uh last night 8 30 my time you can see that I'm saying That you know potentially we're going to See a retest between the 24 and 27 level That's pretty straightforward because of Where the resistance is the market Basically jumped over that point and has
Left a nice big gap for the market to Test in terms of price I'd say if it Breaks under 22k sure comment come at me Bears come at me all that sort of stuff I don't think it's going to happen I Really don't think 19 and a half is Going to get taken out but in terms of This period here this this zone between 25 and 26 and a half 27 there's a Possibility that would come and test it And just like we saw last night with the Volatility from the CPI and all that Sort of stuff that goes on that people Pay so much attention to which really Doesn't matter at the end of the day Unless you were short-term trading you Can make some good money off it Basically Bitcoin spent a total of two Minutes underneath twenty seven thousand Dollars so that puts it now at a total Of three minutes Three minutes under twenty seven Thousand dollars since the 28th of March So basically six seven weeks it's been a Total of three minutes under twenty Seven thousand dollars I'm so focused on That because with the amount of turmoil That's going on out there you would Expect that this should have dumped past 25k past 19 and a half K with all of the Banks collapsing and the interest rates Going up and the sticky inflation and so On and so forth these bad news headlines You'd expect this Market to have dumped
More now I'm not saying that this can't Go under 27 000 like I just pointed out There's a reasonable argument to be made That we need to go and test between 25 And 26 and a half thousand dollars but What I man pointing out that the Resilience of the price and the Bulls at This stage in the market considering all Of the macro factors that are Fundamentals or the fundamentals out There it's doing a relatively good job Of holding up like I said said just to Repeat it can still go down but it could All going down means within that zone There's something comfortable like 24 Through to about 27 000 is still in my Analysis a reasonable area for the Market to pull back to before mounting Another attack to the upside could there Be an even worse case scenario well Let's go back to some of the market Action prior to the change in Trend the Change in trend is noted by the low so We have the November cycle low and then We have that big change in Trend with That boom to the upside in January in The next boom in March so these changes In Trends or prior to that were around 28 drops From August into September and then that November drop which was the FTX collapse So these collapses were around 28 where Would that take the market let's go and Have a look at that 28 basically takes
Us out to around 22 300. so that's Another reason why I continue to say That I don't anticipate the market Falling below 22k because it would have To show that the entire structure has Changed the structure is currently up The macro is currently up buying a few Extra signals that we're waiting on but Essentially for this Market to get under 22 000 it would have to do something That it has not done since June of 2022. It's the market anything can happen but All I'm trying to do here is weigh the Probabilities on my side in my favor so Of course I can make profits from the Market so that's why I'm so confident in The bullish narrative for now the market Would have to do something that it has Not done in 12 months even through the Bottom of the bear Market the final Capitulation of the bear Market the Change in Trend into a probable new bull Market it would have to do something That it has not done since the Catastrophic bear Market from November Through to June in order for price to Get back down to those levels that many Are anticipating the 22ks the 20 Thousands the 18s and the 15s you just Wait it's going to happen in the second Half of 2023 no doubt those dates are Going to get pushed forward to 2024 and So on but that's just the way the market Works could we see a 30 drop in the
Future most definitely and I think that Would come if the market did some Something like a big push-up quickly to Try and test these 40K levels maybe it Happens later on when we hit 60s or 70s But the main structure on how a 30 drop Could occur is if we saw the market Start to Trend up a little harder a Little faster and it's not able to hold That level uh because there's basically No support in the market and that way You could start to see a 30 drop as the Top down to 48 that would be that would Be very probable 69k down to 48k that Seems pretty pretty likely if it was to Occur in a hard and fast manner Nonetheless too far ahead of ourselves For now what I do need from you though Is a like And subscribe thanks again for All of your comments down below that Discussion on the drops in BTC came from Vore zero so thanks very much for that There was a lot of discussion over there Nonetheless go and check out the links In the description there's plenty of Freebies going on there with buy bit Bitget and swiftx for the Aussies guys I'll see you guys at the next video Until then take care and peace out