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This final week of April is a critical One for the markets they are waiting on The GDP data to be announced by the U.S Fed and earning season in the U.S Continues as well so while we wait for The data to come out it seems like the Markets are stalling I want to show you Some data that goes through a bullish Signal and in some cases hasn't turned Out to be bullish this bullish signal Failing to flip from the Bears to the Bulls so with that on the back of the Market's mind I want to show you how Much money is being left on the tables While the market is still fearful Without further Ado smash up that like Button subscribe to the channel top of The video description we have our free Crypto and economic report coming out This week the best in the market it's The only one that gives you a holistic View of an investor mindset crypto stock Markets Commodities and the real estate Cycle the biggest of them all and Finally the last little shill here the Limited time special only for you guys On the channel here using these links Here to the 16th of May up to 200 and Actually 50 dollars in usdt or BTC for Free with these links no trading Required I'll leave that up to you guys That's where you go to subscribe for the Free newsletter this week all right guys Let's start with some of the news
Headlines and it's a really good time to Be looking at these because of the news Headlines that we've seen recently for The US dollar I'm sure that if you've Been following the channel you know Exactly what I'm talking about but the Main thing here is what we have seen From the FED over the last couple of Weeks fed expects banking crisis to Cause a recession this year that's what The minutes were showing mild recession Is now likely this year says Federal Reserve we know that there are always Two steps behind and the data has Already shown that there was a technical Recession in the US last year in those First two quarters that's technical that Is in the facts of the data this is not My opinion at this point I'll give you My opinion at the end of the video with What I think is going to happen based on The data that I'm showing you here today But we know from history that the news Is always two steps behind because that Is what the people want to see that's How it works that's part of media that's Why the cycle keeps repeating and what We saw at the peak in 2022 for the US Dollar and of course the peak for the Stock markets uh in early 2022 you have The same sort of news headlines this Time here this is what we were calling On the channel so that's why I always Talk about subscribing so you can see
This as it comes out you're getting that Opposite side of the equation US dollar strong Euro was collapsing Great British pound was collapsing Everyone should be getting into the US Dollar because it is so strong the US Dollar milkshake theory if you remember That as well that was very highlighted In the news headlines at that time but Since then Market has dropped 12 and What we're seeing now which is what I've Been highlighting over the last couple Of weeks is Extreme bearish headlines For the US dollar with many countries Like France like Russia like China uh Like um South Asian countries African Countries South American countries all Finding their way off the US dollar to Trade amongst themselves with Commodities but when you dig a little Bit deeper into that information it has Been happening for decades not just now At these bottoms which is probably why We aren't seeing the US dollar collapse Any further for now in terms of price as It's priced against many other Currencies around the world this news Really really started to surface through Early March of course we've heard it Forever but then you start to see it Come out more and more and more so this Is what is actually happening in the News headlines and then how it's Transpiring in the chart with what
Investors and buyers are actually doing With their money in these in these Markets so from that point the market Really hasn't dropped out it's been a Month now of these similar prices at Around 102. so 101 to 103 I still think Based on the data here so my own Analysis now that this will eventually Fork the US dollar will continue to fall It's based on our cycle as well this is What typically happens in the second Half of the real estate cycle if that's News to you stick around on the channel This is what we've been following for Many years now Longer term downside potentially this is All the market can do to hold itself up While the news is so bearish for the US Dollar so as we keep that in mind in Terms of news headlines going back to The FED talking about their expecting Mild recession and trying to play it up As if they're we're going to get this I Would possibly say that we've probably Seen it based on all of the news Headlines that we've seen already in the Past I know it's under popular opinion I Know there's always going to be comments From people saying well you're Forgetting about XYZ and you'll you'll See a list of those down below which I Am not taking into account because over My 17 years of History it doesn't really Matter the news is typically nothing
Burgers what I do want to continue to Show you though apart from my opinion is The facts of the charts and the facts in The data here so this is the GDP and This is what the market is anticipating For this week we've got the advanced GDP Quarter on quarter coming out for the us On Thursday at least my time here in Australia East Coast the forecast is for Two percent last was 2.6 and those two Negative quarters that we have seen uh That was our announcement in April 2022 And July 2022 these two were negative so We had negative 1.4 negative 0.9 so Technically speaking the recession has Potentially already happened and it's Possible the market is already pricing This in because of the chart itself Which if you're following you know that We go through that quite a lot make sure You do subscribe to our free crypto and Economic report Link in that top of the Video description we've got more of this Coming up this week especially with These big news announcements that the uh That the market is waiting on So this particular data is coming out This week this is the uh as I said the Advanced there's also the preliminary And the final GDP announcements to come Out the advanced release is the earliest And thus tends to have the most impact So says Forex Factory here so this is What we're waiting on the last two
Quarters have actually been positive We've had 2.6 and 2.9 yes of course the Argument is there is there that they are Now measuring the GDP in different ways Nonetheless this is the data that the Market is using so this is what we are Going to use as well On top of the positive GDP after the two Negative quarters already obviously we Have the forecast coming out now for two Percent so it's going to be another Positive quarter at least that's what The market is expecting we are also Seeing world's richest people increasing And changing hands this was news Probably a couple of months ago now but It continues to remain in the markets as The highest richest person in the world Bernard Bernard a no family now the Interesting point here not only are they Above Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett Larry Elson Bill Gates Etc 210 billion the family's businesses Are all in the luxury goods you have Fashion and leather goods Wine and Spirits perfumes watches and jewelry if You're unfamiliar with what brands they Have you can read a few here Louis Vuitton Celine Kenzo Mark Jacob the wine And spirits Hennessy Dom Perignon Moe Shandon so you get it all right this is Pushed the French Market into all-time Highs and continues to move into All-time highs now I often hear the
Argument that who cares it's France it's The seventh largest country in the world What matters is is the us but what we're Seeing in Europe if you want to follow The trend is a lot of markets either at All-time highs like France or starting To move very close towards new all-time Highs in this case Germany very very Close to coming to New all-time highs The UK has hit a new all-time high just Before the banking collapse has Rebounded and looks like it's on its way To a new all-time high again these are The biggest markets in Europe some of The biggest markets around the world Just last week France closed at a new All-time high daily and weekly it closed At its high these signs are typical of a Bull market especially as they break Through new all-time highs and then Close at the top of the bar so now Getting into the type reading meaning The reading of the chart itself a lot of People fear that markets going into new All-time highs is a recipe for an Extreme bear market and the market now Must collapse straight away but what Again has said through his history of a Being one of the world's best Traders Mr Gant is that these are some of the Easiest and best times to be trading a Market when they break into new all-time High prices and there's no better Example of this rule than Bitcoin you
Can see that it had its run into its 2011 top just taking out High After High After High and then eventually as I Started to break through that 2011 top In 2013 we had another solid High going In the middle of the year and then again Into the end of the year obviously a Nice long bear market after such Exuberance going from a few bucks up to 11 or 1200 dollars Same thing happened again in 2017 Started to break into new all-time highs And this is where the market makes its Fastest easiest money so if you miss out On these times this is basically that Point in the market that you can expect To lose the easiest gains of all and so That happened again in 2020 we saw it Break out late 2020 into 2021 and as it Breaks into new all-time highs in the The first instance it's the most easiest Time to be getting in turning our Attention to the US and some of those Failed bearish signals now what we've Seen in the last 10 11 months is a Collapse fear after collapse fear after Collapse fear essentially the news Headlines at these times every time the Market was making bottoms was something Different something around that the Banking that the U.S market had to Collapse based on recession fears based On earnings it could be based on Something else going on around the world
Maybe it was a war maybe it was Something else and each time we we've Remained in this trading range for the Last 11 months only to now see the Market trading near those Highs but There's some other pretty strong data to Suggest that yes this is possibly a bull Run and some great times to be buying up In the market but there have been times Where the signal has failed and I want To look at those signals themselves what They mean what they are and those times That they've failed and if there's any Of those times that are similar to now So this one is the composite Trend Buy Signal this is a composite of 10 Trend Following indicators that cycle from Bearish to bullish and when they do when They cycle from this bearish Zone into The bullish Zone it's typically been a Great time to be getting on in the the Stock market and so the times that it Has worked you can see going back to the GFC that's where this low came in as That's 2010 and you've got 2009 the Buy Signal was quite good off the back of a Very big bear market and from that point Markets rallied small retracement Another Buy Signal again another Significant retracement back here in 2011 another Buy Signal forms and Away You go so if we're trying to trade Against a market that is perpetually Going up based on inflation based on
Earnings based on anything else you want To add to the the mix here you're Probably going to lose based on the Hundred Years of data I know a lot of People are waiting for a significant Bear Market because I mean that's what The news headlines are saying but when We look at the data it's telling us the Opposite not only the data that we've Looked at on the channel but also data Like this composite Trend tool and so You can see again going into 2016 after A pretty reasonable down year this Doesn't look like much at this point in Time from what we've currently Experienced but at that time I do Remember 2015 it was quite a significant Time in the market where we just Continue to see some lower prices after A little bounce here but then the signal Showed up and we had a nice rally to the Upside another significant fall here 2018 and early 2019 signal showed up a Nice move to the upside covert happened Another signal 2021 moved to the upside And what we've currently seen is a solid 10 months to the downside followed by About six months grinding higher now With a Buy Signal showing up you Probably want to know what does this Mean how often is it a positive sign for The market and which times has it failed When the composite Trend model cycles From negative four to plus eight or
Better the s p Rose 90 of the time like I've talked about plenty of times on the Channel I don't want to be betting Against odds like this there is that one In 10 chance that this doesn't work out And I assume that's what a lot of people Are betting on they think one out of ten Times could be right now could be the Time that the market fails and this is Typical of that human mindset always Looking out for the worst in in the Markets yet it doesn't happen all that Often it does happen it will happen Again but it seems like now is not the Time for that you can see in history two Months three months six months 12 months Later you get a positive return so like This says here s p Rose 90 of the time Over the next six months you get the Buy Signal over the next six months nine out Of ten times the market Rises six months Later you had a positive return 90 of The time 12 months later you had Basically a 90 return as well nearly a Nine out of ten times the average Max Gain 9.5 to 16.2 percent we've been Talking about this now since the bottom In October even since a very significant Low in the market in June which October Really only just went a little bit below For a number of days and then closed Above and hasn't seen those levels since We have not seen 3 600 points since and This all ties into Bitcoin as well with
The strength in Bitcoin as a risk on Asset So the data is really showing that the Next six to 12 months is going to be Significantly higher in price To the tune of around 9.5 to 16.2 Percent based on this signal now the Signal doesn't work 100 of the time so What could the worst case scenario be or At least the average worst case scenario Well we can see over the past average Max losses over the next three six 12 Months have been in the vicinity of 1.9 To 2.5 percent from this current price Point so where would that put the s p if We were to fall 1.9 to 2.5 percent 2.5 Percent would set us up somewhere around 4040 points typically that's not really A super bearish case it would set us up Somewhere down towards the 50 point Which would be a great place for the Market to reset for another move to the Upside it's basically a balanced Correction to around this four thousand To four thousand and sixty points and so There is the possibility of the market Coming back but typically speaking it's Not that that massive and when it comes To some of the largest times or the Worst times you can see back here in 1931 that the signal showed up yet the Market really didn't get a move on until Later in the mid 30s but that's coming Off the back of a major collapse in the
Stock market something to the tune of 80 90 from those highs after that Roaring 20s another couple of times that this Really didn't take off was through the War period you can see the signal right Here and then the market falling and so From that point the market really didn't Go much lower in terms of price however It didn't get the big push on to the Upside but remember this was during the Second world war something that we're Not in at the moment maybe as third World war happens in the future I'm not Going to go there in this video but Essentially it's a different time not That this time is different this time is Uh trending towards what the averages Have said over the course of history but We need to really pay attention to what Was happening in the world at that time Nothing like what we're currently seeing At the moment now there's other two Signals through the market in the 2000s Showed that it was at the top of the Market right now we are not at the top Of the market we've come off the back of A 10-month bear market and about a Six-month grinding sideways period which Is what we're calling the transitional Period in the market so it's not in the Same type of scenario we're more in this Sort of Zone here in 2003 where the Market has bottomed and there's trying To find its way out of this low so these
Are typically the best times however it Is the most scary times for anyone to be Investing because of all the bad news That's still out there over to bitcoin And I've got a ton of information coming Out for BTC this week the short term the Long term potentially how long is this Correction lasting for so make sure you Have subscribed like the content on the Channel and subscribe to our free crypto And economic report link is in the top Of that video description along with our Limited time offers here with bitget and Buy bit for up to 230 bucks with them And double BTC uh to 20 with swiftex for The Aussie guys now BTC I've got further To go into this video is long enough and I really want to dive deeper into what's Happening for May June July that sort of Thing so make sure you guys subscribed The reason for that is where we Currently sit with our fear and greet Index and this potential correction how Much further down can we go in this Market these are the boxes I want to pay Attention to on the monthly and then go Down to the weekly and the daily as for Now on The Daily we are sitting at these Resistance support levels at around 27k The downside here is around 26 and a Half thousand dollars now what I will Say with this and what's happening with The s p this week while we wait for the GDP data the earnings and all that sort
Of thing coming out in the US is so far It looks like the Market is very much Risk on not risk off but risk on based On bitcoin exploding from these lows in November going up 100 and putting in Some significant higher lows on the back Of some very bad news like the banking Crisis back in March in that low of 19 And a half thousand and so while we wait For this Market to correct to put in a New low it's probably not going to go up While we're still waiting on some of These other information from the US and That's why we're keeping an eye on some Of these significant support zones to The downside as we mentioned last week The fear and greed for crypto for Bitcoin has found a resistance point at Around uh 69 68 around that 70 point Level and we have corrected now to the Neutral zone between 47 and 54. you can See the low here on Friday was at 50. We're at 53 now 56 and of course today Is going to be a little different as Well so this is all going according to Plan when it comes to the market Sentiment especially as we have been Moving higher on the back of some Corrections so that's what I have for You today like And subscribe I'll see You guys at the next video thank you for Your tips for the free diving I'll do Some updates in future about how I'm Going with that if you so care otherwise
I'll see you at the next video have a Great day and until then peace out