Welcome to the Price Prediction Department with AJWritesCrypto! In today’s video, we’ll explore Optimism, its plethora of partnerships, and recent bullish (and bearish) news. And at the end, we’ll predict what OP’s price will be at the top of the next bull run!
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0:00 Intro
0:44 Optimistic Rollups
2:53 Partnerships
3:45 Bedrock Hardfork
6:24 Token Unlock
7:43 Circulating Supply
8:40 Market Cap
11:26 Price Prediction
12:10 Conclusion
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All of our videos are strictly personal opinions. Please make sure to do your own research. Never take one person’s opinion for financial guidance. There are multiple strategies and not all strategies fit all people. Our videos ARE NOT financial advice. Digital Assets are highly volatile and carry a considerable amount of risk. Only use exchanges for trading digital assets. Never keep your entire portfolio on an exchange.
Sources:
https://blog.matter-labs.io/optimistic-vs-zk-rollup-deep-dive-ea141e71e075
https://www.optimism.io/
https://twitter.com/optimismFND/status/1628762305566474241
https://blockworks.co/news/optimism-bedrock-upgrade-superchain
https://twitter.com/OPLabsPBC/status/1631423512337326087?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1631423512337326087%7Ctwgr%5E7084b3bf2501acf2c33a7e5f1694cf79cfb54622%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Foptimism-mainnet-bedrock-upgrade-june-6
https://twitter.com/optimismFND/status/1658202279147601921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1658202279147601921%7Ctwgr%5E7084b3bf2501acf2c33a7e5f1694cf79cfb54622%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Foptimism-mainnet-bedrock-upgrade-june-6
https://ambcrypto.com/worldcoin-switches-sides-in-l2-war-picks-optimism-over-polygon/
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/optimism-ethereum/historical-data/
https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20230528/
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/05/30/optimism-token-prices-slide-7-ahead-of-580m-op-unlock-doubling-token-supply/
https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20230226/
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/optimism/investor_financials
https://twitter.com/BuildOnBase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1661406955158618118%7Ctwgr%5E66cd8ff417a4b6ac2e45b1ce65ea065896fa48c5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Fcoinbase-s-base-network-publishes-path-to-mainnet-outlining-roadmap
https://twitter.com/BuildOnBase/status/1661406962162991121
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/optimism
https://token.unlocks.app/optimism
https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/optimism/vesting-schedule
https://community.optimism.io/docs/governance/allocations/#token-distribution-details
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qVMhLmmch3s6XSbiBe8hgD4ntMkPIOhc1WrhsYsQc7M/edit#gid=1283480580
https://messari.io/asset/optimism/chart/mcap-circ
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Welcome to bitboy crypto my name is AJ And this is the price prediction Department this week by popular demand We are going to cover optimism let's get It [Music] [Music] A lot of times in crypto you will hear People say oh this next coin it's an Ethereum killer that coin's an ethereum Killer with all due respect I disagree And that's because I think ethereum's Worst enemy is itself and if you ever Got hit for a three to five hundred Dollar gas fee you know what I'm talking About and this is why layer 2 projects Are so important layer 2 projects are Imperative because they take the load Off of the main net they prevent Bottlenecking they increase throughput They increase speed and they lower gas Fees we all know that Matic is top dog When it comes to l2s but that number two Spot has to go to optimism what Separates them is that Matic uses ZK Roll-Ups optimism uses Optimistic roll-ups How this works is instead of processing One smart contract at a time they can Roll them up in a bundle with ZK Roll-Ups each transaction has to be Verified before the transaction can go Through with optimistic rollups they Assume that it's already good they're
Optimistic about the fact that the Transaction is valid doing it this way Saves a lot of time and effort and to Ensure the Integrity of the transactions Optimism uses a mechanism called fraud Proofs so if a validator thinks a Transaction that already went through Was in fact malicious or not correct They will submit a fraud proof and go Back and check it and if it turns out They're right the person that submitted The original transaction that was Incorrect gets hit with a penalty let's Not go too far under the hood here but Let's look at it this way ZK Roll-Ups And optimistic Roll-Ups both share the Same goal scalability but they're Different because they both have Different advantages and disadvantages And they both can be used for separate Use cases optimistic rollups generally Cost less and work a little bit faster They're also less complex they have Lower latency and faster finality and They have greater scalability potential Optimistic Roll-Ups can be used for defy Nfts gaming and when you think about it Gaming is a big one because there's so Many small little transactions it's much Easier and faster to put them in an Optimistic roller optimistic Roll-Ups Are also good for supply chain Logistics Governance voting and micro payments and Transactions built on ethereum the main
Net for optimism was launched in December of 2021 but the coin itself was Actually launched May 31st of 2022. as You can see on the screen here Optimism's ecosystem is absolutely Massive in fact World coin created by Sam Altman who created chat CPT actually Switched sides from Matic to optimism Speaking of Partners optimism actually Has some really big Venture capitalists Backing them this includes Paradigm Andreessen Horowitz and Ideo Ventures But if we're going to talk about Partnerships and optimism we have to Talk a about coinbase they are both Putting their heads together to create Bass simply put it is another layer 2 Platform designed to bring the next Billion users into web3 the fact that Optimism has so much VC backing and has This partnership goes a long way when Thinking about price predictions before I get to the price prediction I want to Talk about two big stories with optimism From the news lately one of them is Really bullish and one of them not so Much let's go with the good news first On June 6th optimism is doing a hard Fork called Bedrock according to their Website Bedrock is a complete rewrite of An entire roll-up stack and will be the Largest upgrade ever released on the op Mainnet long story short they're doing The Bedrock hard Fork to reduce
Transaction fees increase network Security and to be more compatible with Ethereum according to a tweet from op Labs the Bedrock upgrade will bring a 47 Reduction in protocol cost and security Fees to the optimism mainnet not only Does this hard Fork bring down the fees And make it more secure this upgrade is A step forward to their overall goal Which is to create the super chain the Super chain is not just a must for Optimism but it's also a must for bass On last week's video we talked about Quant and how important interoperability Is this is the same idea with the super Chain according to the optimism website The super chain project seeks to Maximize interoperability and Composability between different chains Using the op stacked and integrate siled L2s into a single cohesive layer just Like my analogy last week how each Blockchain in each L2 is kind of like a City on a map and they're all not Connected the idea of interoperability Is to be the highway between these Cities so they're all connected together In one cohesive bundle but before base Can launch they still have a couple more Things they have to do on their Checklist if you look at this tweet here You will see the op mainnet upgrade to Bedrock that's happening this week one Once that's finished they still have to
Complete audits with no critical issues And they have to make sure the test net Is stable once all these things happen They will be able to launch base and There is no date on that quite yet and Also base does not plan to launch their Own token to be completely honest with You I am very curious to see how the Rollout of bass really affects crypto as A whole and if it really does bring a Billion new users into crypto I'm here For it Foreign [Applause] [Applause] [Applause] So the other news story that's really Not that bullish for optimism is the Token unlock if you look at this Screenshot here just from last week you Will see that there was 335.3 Million optimism in its Circulating Supply since this screenshot Was taken on May 28th over 368 million more tokens were added to The optimism Supply optimism's price did Fall seven percent since the unlock but Not that many holders sold understand That this unlocked was the first time Those long-term investors finally got a Hold of their tokens after they had to Wait a full year since those tokens have Been unlocked there's a little over 644 Million tokens now in the circulating
Supply the bad news here is is that that Is only 15 of the total Supply but this Is where things got really confusing in My research I looked at vesting Schedules on a couple other websites and I was completely confused until I looked At optimism's actual website notice that On this chart that shows its vesting Schedule it doesn't say Max apply it Says available Supply the thing here is Is that the max supply for optimism is a Little over 4.2 billion with the two Percent inflation every year but it's Going to take a very long time for all Of those coins to bleed into the supply Remember the price prediction equation Is price equals market cap divided by Circulating Supply so our job is to First find out what the circulating Supply will be by the time we get to the All-time highs which is projected to be September November of 2025. if you Clicked on this fact sheet from their Website you will see here that the Cumulative op circulating Supply between May 25 and April 26 is projected to be 2.736 billion keep in mind this is just An estimation but at least this number Is from optimism themselves and not Token unlock or token terminal which Numbers are a little bit off on their Vesting schedules so since the 2.7 Billion number is for April of 26th Let's meet it in the middle and
Guesstimate that around September November of 2025 we'll be looking at About 2.4 billion tokens in the Circulating Supply so now that we have The denominator let's get the numerator When optimism hit its all-time high on February 24th this year it hit a price Point of 3.26 at the time it only had 234 million in its Supply and its market Cap was only 718 million right now Optimism is priced at a dollar forty and Its market cap is higher than it was When it hit its all-time high its market Cap right now is 905 million getting to A billion dollar market cap isn't really Easy in crypto only 45 projects stable Coins included have a market cap over a Billion dollars I know that's not Completely fair to say because at the Top of the bull run there was 110 Projects over a billion dollars the Point I'm trying to get across here is That just getting to a billion dollars In crypto is not very easy so with the Increased supply of 2.4 billion tokens If optimism's market cap did a 10x and Got to 9 billion dollars it would be Worth about 3.77 but you gotta understand remember When it hit its old all-time high of 326 Its market cap was only 718. it has so Much more work to do to catch up to its Supply so do I think at the top of the Next Bull Run that optimism can reach
And surpass its previous all-time high It's possible but the market cap is Going to have to do serious work and I Really think all of this hangs on how Well the partnership with coinbase and That platform base works out if base you Know really does onboard a billion People or or at least a good amount of Them by 2025 I think it's possible for Optimism to maybe even catch Matic in The long run but maybe not this bull run I mean just saying that's a big reach I Mean it got a head start and it has an 8 Billion dollar market cap right now so Optimism has a lot of catching up to do Before or you can even consider talking About a flipping for the number one spot With l2s and also keep in mind as we get To the all-time high more and more and More and more optimism is going to Unlock up the hill if you look at the Vesting schedule for its available Supply and while this happens every time It unlocks there's going to be more cell Pressure and more cell pressure and this Could discourage their holders but also Keep in mind when these tokens unlock That value also unlocks as well if you Look at this chart on massari here you Can actually see that the market cap Jumped up significantly the day all Those tokens were put out and I actually Expected more people to sell off and it Was only ended up being a seven percent
Drop and it has caught up two percent Since then but here's the question Those people have been holding for a Very long time when are they going to Press the eject button this is really Hard to tell and this is a super Difficult coin to do a price prediction On because of how much the supply is Jumping and the success of its Partnerships still remain to be seen Make sure you keep all of that in mind But here's my price prediction I believe That optimism's market cap can do a 10x From now also because when all those Tokens unlock that value is added in so Let's hope that they don't sell off and They hold that value in the market cap If that happens and if the market cap Can 10x from here that would spit Optimism out with a market cap just over 9 billion dollars that would equate to a 3.75 optimism that is the lower part of My range and I'm going out on a limb Here thinking that it can surpass its All-time high but this happening is Completely reliant on the success of its Partnerships and the people who get the Unlocked tokens not selling off for the Higher end of my range if optimism had a 14 billion dollar market cap that would Spit optimism at 5 dollars and 83 cents Boom there you go there's my optimism Price prediction am I too conservative Am I too bullish let me know I want to
Know what you think in the comments also For next week on the price prediction Department I do plan on doing Gala There's been a lot of requests for Gala So I'm going to fulfill that and do that Coin next week but for the week after That let me know in the comments what Coins you want to see I really really Enjoy doing this I'm very grateful so Thank you for all your positive feedback My name is AJ writes crypto and have Yourself a great weekend Foreign [Applause] [Applause] [Music] Thank you