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Sell in May and go away such a typical Saying in the markets but is it true Should we be selling up our Bitcoin Crypto stocks and heading out the door For a fantastic summer vacation coming Back at the end of the year to buy it All up again at cheaper prices let's Take a look at this in more detail as It's a typical saying that gets thrown Out around there in the markets while There is really isn't too much data that People reference as always before we Dive into the video if you could smash Up that like button and subscribe to the Channel if you haven't already Bell Notification icon and top of the video Description is a link to our Tia premium There is a price rise coming so you can Get a discount by signing up to our free Newsletter that comes out once every two Weeks to your inbox and uh going through The prompts there to get your discount On TIA premium there's also 230 a free Usdt with no trading required across Bitget and buy bit with those links in The video description limited time Exclusive to this Channel all right guys Let's start with the definition of Selling may go away this seems to be a Major problem doesn't matter what we Talk about whether it's recessions or Support and resistance bear markets it Doesn't matter what it is it typically Comes down to the definitions that
People are referring to when we're Talking about a specific topic so in This case sell in May there is a few Reasons why it works and a few that Don't so the long and the short of it is Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't When does it work is what I want to have A look at in this video and when doesn't It work as well So first things first typically it's Referred to as you sell on the 1st of May and buy back on the 31st of October Potentially the 1st of November Basically it's looking at the six worst Months of the year may through to the End of October so November and then the Next six months of the good months other Ways that people look at this is sell in May and go away and then I guess they Might think to buy back in June or July Or August or some other time they don't Really have a plan to to realize when They should buy back so I just want to Sort of set that clear first up in terms Of the definition because it can get Confusing if you're just thinking about Selling may go away when do you buy back Well typically speaking they say uh Coinciding with Halloween so at the end Of October if you want to get a nice Round six months the first of November Is the date there let's first take a Look at Bitcoin before we get into the s P and DOW Jones the U.S markets the
Biggest stock markets of the world Starting with BTC so we should know by Now that 2014 2018 2022 are the bear Market years for Bitcoin then we have the the Transitional years 2015 2019 and Probably 2023 I know a lot of people are Still thinking that 2023 could be a Massive barrier but it doesn't seem like That at this stage then we have the two Bull market years 2016 2017 but 2017 is Really where the public comes in same Thing happened in 2020 2021 2020 was Also a bull market year but 2021 is Pretty much where the public comes in And so I expect the same similar sort of Thing to happen again you've got 2024 2025 so we've got 2023 as being similar To 2019 where it's at transitional year And then 2024 would be start of a Feeling more like a bull market and then 2025 basically where the public probably Gets in we'll wait and see it's still a Fair bit of time away So I've mentioned that because we need To get a reference to what type of Market are we in in terms of the cycle For BTC so I'm saying that 2023 is Similar to 2019 that's similar to around 2015. let's have a look at the amount of Months that we have in a row of positive Months so in 2015 we had four months in A row before we moved over to January And it was a negative month positive
Negative 2019 We have one two three four five months Before a few negative months in a row 2023 we've already seen four positive Months yes February was only barely a Positive month nonetheless we've got to Use the data that's here so it's four Months there as well so we're kind of Coming towards the end of any sort of Cycle for the uptrend for the up months So it's starting to put the pressure on That may could be a sell in may go away Type scenario but then that leaves the Next six months of the year so all of May through to October as to whether That is going to be a positive result at The end of that six months six months or A negative result The other thing we can look at here is The uh the winning streak or the up Month streak like we saw in 2020 we had Three months leading into 2021 another Three months so basically six months in A row of positive months but that was in A different stage of the cycle something That we might experience next year into 2025 so 24 into 2025. Um we also had four months at the Beginning of 2020 2013 which ended up Being a very very bullish year you can See that it finished in November with a Huge gain at the end there and basically From that there wasn't too much else That was different so by the time you
Get to about four or five months of Positive months you're pretty much Running to the end of that streak so What does that look like on the chart so I've shown the yellow these big yellow Boxes are those uh the bull markets that We talked about here from 2015 into 2017 Then we have the bear Market year and Then again go those few years then You've got the bear Market year and so On so that's what we have here on the Chart the pink Verticals Is May and the white Is October so it's gonna we're gonna Have to look at the end of that Basically the closing price of that Month so we're going to look from pink To white pink to white pink to White and Like we can see here from the first Cycle Going from pink to White it was up Then we had pink to White Also up only marginally but it was still Up You have this uh the the top of the Market here in 2011 a down year so Basically pink to White was negative so The selling may go away actually worked In that period but this was a negative Year so basically a bear Market we have Another bear Market through here in 2014 Into January of 2015 so the pink so There's the may open
To the October close was a negative so Selling may go away worked in the case In the bear Market in the bull market Pink to White up Pink to White up And again pink into white up so within a Bull market wasn't a great thing to do During the 2015 through the 2017 bull Market I guess you can start to see the Pattern here we have pink into white Negative that's in the bear Market we Have the bear Market of basically 2018. Following into the bull market well we Have a pink into white yes you missed This blow off top here but it was a Positive so I mean you would have stayed In the market but uh it just really Depends on what your strategy was during This period quite a big blow off and Then also a pullback Pink Into white another up uh up six months We have the close in May and we might Need to get this to make it a little bit Clearer The open in May I should say to the Close in October was up six percent so We're still positive you had a huge Pullback in May to June and then the Market rallied into those tops so I mean If you sold in Maine went away who cares About that six percent you made pretty Good gains throughout that entire uh two To three years so it's really shown that
Every bull market at least in these sort Of three-ish year periods you don't want To sell in mate and go away in the case Of Bitcoin For the bear markets right here right Here and what we're about to look at Right here it has been a reasonable Strategy actually have been pretty Positive throughout that entire time to Sell Your crypto to sell your Bitcoin and go Away come back in that November date and The same sort of thing again in uh 2022 Here's may all the way into the end of October very very big bearish period and Then of course November is here starting Potentially the new cycle so should we Be selling in May and going away based On the data probably not but that Doesn't mean that we won't get some sort Of Peak in May a pullback for June July August and maybe we start to creep up in September October towards the end of October and put in a higher price Compared to where we are now so there's Potentially some big troughs and then Another Peak to come within that period And it's shown that time and time again It might be marginal at the beginning But it starts to ramp up towards the end Of that cycle and I suspect this cycle Is not going to be too different to the Previous Cycles so selling in May going Away I probably wouldn't if I was
Looking at it strictly based on this Definition and this is pretty much the Definition across the board when it Comes to finance sell on the first buy Back on the 31st of October or first of November whatever the first trading day Is that you can actually buy back in of Course referring to the stock market At least in the case of Bitcoin crypto Probably not going to work out for you So what about the stock market well I've Got a fantastic chart here that shows Where we are at in terms of the market Sentiment before I get into that you Know what to do like it subscribe to the Channel this is your home of macro cycle Analysis telling you the things that no One else is going to tell you on the Internet because unfortunately a Majority of people are still very much Stuck in the bearish camp and we're Seeing it quite uh prevalent now where a Lot of people are believing that we're In this sort of big bearish camp at the Top here waiting for this big crash Because they think that this chart looks Exactly the same as this chart which it Kind of does but that doesn't mean that It has to fall exactly like this chart These are guides in terms of the market Sentiment they're not guides in terms of Fractals and markets have many different Fractals as we can see through the s p Like we can see on the Dow Jones for
Hundreds of years is this is the GFC Running in running into that Peak before The collapse this doesn't look anything Like what was going on in the chart Right here so it's just important to Understand that these are not fractals Meaning that they're the exact overlay Of the price chart but they are good Areas to understand what's going on in The market in terms of Market sentiment And so I've posted this this morning From a another account here really good Account looking at how this is probably Can't confirm 100 yet but probably What's happening when it comes to the Market sentiment and I've gone through And just had a look at the areas of the Blue Dot and the Green Dot which is Mentioned here in the original post but Looking at this going return to normal a Lot of people think we're in this stage Of the market right here before we Collapse we've got a lot of reasons Which we've talked about on the channel Which is why I always suggest to Subscribe and go and checking out those Videos Uh but essentially a lot of reasons to Suggest why this is not about to Collapse especially layering in what we Looked at on Saturday where we had the Highest monthly close in 12 to 13 months Highest daily close of the Year highest Weekly close of the year as well
Breaking past significant 50 levels with A lot of uh pretty positive signs in Some of the major stocks coming through As well yes I still know that there is This looming recession and sticky Interest and sticky inflation and all These sorts of narratives but the price Chart is the fact these are the facts on The chart for going up so Looking at this as being a blue dot area I believe these the people who are Trying to short into the beginnings of a Bull market And they're about to get crushed should The market continue higher over this Coming week or month as for where we Currently are I think we're probably Somewhere around here and as I pointed Out a little bit lower I would say that Maybe you could even argue that we're in The stealth phase right here before this Bit of a takeoff so we're about to head Through the next breakout point and then Start to head higher where institutional Investors get in before the public gets In closer to the top so the institutions Are probably going to get a little bit More comfortable buying up as we get Higher into these price levels here and Then the public will be even more Comfortable as we start to break out Into new all-time highs so I would argue That sure if you want to say it was Takeoff in the stealth phase or
Potentially here in this green section In the awareness phase either way I Think we're in this first half of the uh The market sentiment before we see this Final stage this final public stage Where it blows off into this top then You get that that bull trap and the Return to normal and then we get the Major collapse I think those things are Definitely coming so I'm not a macro Bear forever but it definitely looks Like for now we're starting to break out Of these stages here either this one Here in takeoff or this one here in bear Trap we'll wait and see how the Enthusiasm pursues in the coming months So how does the selling may go away Strategy work for the s p well here's a Nice simple way to have a look at this Next six months in the stock market Going from May to October basically the Beginning of May to the end of October This typically has been the worst six Months of returns in the stock market Compared to any other six-month period And the best six-month period is Actually from November to April which is The exact opposite to the May October so If you wanted to sell in may go away you Might lose some gains 1.7 that's an Average year of the six months going Back to 1950 And just holding for those other six Months gives you a positive return of
6.9 so as an average there's never a Losing six months which is why the Selling may go away doesn't always work In the cases that I can see it working Is if you have a better timing uh method Such as a swing chart such as your Gan Analysis your Gan dates where you don't Actually have to sell on the 1st of May But you look for a turning point Potentially coming up as we have with The investor accelerator so go and check This out here sign up for the discount Before the price increases these are the Sort of things that we look out for when It comes to Cycles themselves I don't Like to just look at the first of the Month to the end of the month but this Is typically how the data is formed out There in traditional Finance but we like To look at specific turning dates in the Month and what has been working Relatively well recently are mid-month Dates it could be a little earlier than That mid month it could be a little Later but look at these very significant Turns on the 16th of August the 13th of October you've got an early date here in December then you have another midday Right here the market held up for that So you've got the 13th of December Doesn't always work 100 you've got the 23rd down here up here early in February But the market held out Until the 15th of February so the
Mid-month dates are something that we're Looking at moving into May another huge One the banking crisis low 13th of March These mid-cycle mid-month dates seem Like they could be continuing to work For now and nothing has said that They're going to change just yet look at What happened in April around the 18th Of April so if we work out somewhere Into the mid area of May it could be Another top could be a bottom for a Turning point we'll wait and see but the Market is currently trending up so maybe We head up into mid-may before we get That big pullback the market goes quiet Bit boring a bit dead until the market Starts to climb out of this sort of Correction into that later half of the Year now earlier in the video I did Mention about the seven year sabbatical Cycle basically the schmitter but I'm Going to leave that for another video Looking at larger Cycles again the main Thing here is that you then need to Layer which stage of the cycle it is for The S P 500 obviously for the Dow Jones Same sort of thing and layer that on top Of the uh the presidential cycle as well Which I have right here so I've talked About this in previous videos stay tuned To the channel uh we'll get into this in More detail in future videos as we lead Into the second half of the pre-election Presidential year which we've pointed
Out is most likely going to have a Positive year return so meaning from the First of January to the end of this year 2023 based on the historic data going Through pre-election years as well so Lots of different Cycles to layer on top Of each other for now it seems like we Might be heading up into mid May and Then maybe we can sell and go away so Allowing these sort of things across the Top of each other like And subscribe Thanks once again guys for your turnout Tia members on the weekend I've got some Photos up on YouTube and Twitter as well Of our first members Meetup here on the Gold Coast so thanks once again to you Guys for showing up and having good Chats if you want to get involved with That of course link is in the top of the Video description Tia premium get Involved before the price increases and There's some free usdt with our Channel Sponsors here by bit and bitget I'll Leave it there for today guys lots of Great stuff coming up I'll see you at The next video Until Then peace out