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Last week those mean coins were pumping This week cryptos are dumping losing Value against USD and the all-important BTC now is this the end is this the time That it starts to break down let's take A look at cycle based evidence going Through the s p the USD for our longer Term gains for BTC if you haven't Already hit that like button subscribe To the channel links in the top of the Video description I'll get into those Later because we have more important Things to cover right now so let's do it The cryptocurrency market cap we have Plenty of negatives going on here 24 Hours lots and lots of red now I've got This on the BTC chart so you can see Just how much all of these coins are Losing against the USD and against Bitcoin just putting that pain on top of Paint sorry about that but we do have Some good news coming up from this point It's a lot of short-term bloodbath Capitulation on some of these old coins I would say the majority of them Especially if you were watching Yesterday today's video a long one but It goes through in detail what is Happening in cryptocurrencies with Regard to their valuations against BTC At this stage in the cycle but the main Question is is this the end stage are we Getting ready to pump again I want to Get into that looking at the macro
Cycles that's something that we do here On the channel I think very well if you Want to understand more about that Become a member Tia premium before the Price increases so there is a plenty of Blood happening in the streets across Cryptocurrencies now I've pointed this Out on Twitter as well you can see the Values of the old coins against BTC is Dropping pretty heavily of course I've Picked a few out here but of course when Bitcoin's going down then typically a Lot of the altcoins are also going down At the same rate or more importantly They're going down at a faster rate now I think this is all coming back to the Market sentiment it needs to reset yes We've talked about higher prices in BTC Especially if we looked at some of the Videos from last week of course I'm Looking at the longer term picture for BTC which is why I think some of these Shorter term blood bars or capitulations Or just a few days down is just part and Parcel of this stage of the cycle Remember we looked at the resistance Level on the fear and greed index Somewhere around 70 and I've looked at This range between 60 and 80. once we Get up to that level typically we get Some resistance and we get some pushback Especially when we're just coming out of A cycle low like we're seeing with BTC November 2022 cycle low for the stock
Markets October 2022 looking at the Cycle low now I'm not talking about some Looming recession or factoring in some Other sort of interest rates or Inflation or anything like that the Markets take care of that for us we Don't need to worry our little cells With all the different things that the News media headlines throw at us Hopefully I've demonstrated that enough Over the last 12 to 24 months that news Headlines even if they are from the fed Or anything else like that are basically Just news narratives to pull and steal Our attention left and right and Everyone 99 let's learn to say everyone 99.99 of People do this on YouTube on Twitter on Anything else like that and some might Even blame me for doing it but Nonetheless what I'm trying to do is Point out that all of these recessionary Things all these talks about Inflation interest rate Rises anything Like that is basically stealing our Attention because what we're trying to Focus on is what is happening in the Charts right now so with that little Rant out of the way we have the crypto Fear and greed index on its Surge from Those lows that was what the rant was About is to explain that that is most Likely the cycle low Even if with some we've got some looming
Recession we still need pullbacks within This range so going to the max here this Was the last cycle low through this Period and then we had a nice big pump Up and it was a very big pump on BTC Going to nearly fourteen thousand Dollars which means the market sentiment Had to pump up really hard into extreme Greed this time however we're just Sitting at about 70. so it's still Bordering on that extreme greed some Would say yes it's in extreme grid Especially what happened with Pepe but Nonetheless we do have to have some Pullbacks just like we saw every time in The past some more extreme than others Like we saw with the March collapse so The banking prices low which we now know We have higher prices across the board But nonetheless yes we still need to get Some pullback and some time just to Catch up getting back to our midpoint Our balanced Market sentiment and also You can see here that maybe we get back Down down to around the 30s we just need To reset in terms of our Market Sentiment does that mean that price Comes all the way back down to those Other prices of course not we had the June low we had the November low and the Market sentiment continued up from that Point we can have the price remain Steady and still drop off in terms of The market sentiment because price is
Just hovering so that's what I want to Get to in terms of what I think is Happening for the longer term in price All of this is just giving us an idea of What can happen in the short term yes we Need to have a pullback because it's Short-term analysis in that case and a Lot of hype has gone into the market but Longer term now we're going to take a Bigger Longer term view on the USD and The s p to give us that cycle analysis So that we can then throw it into BTC so This is a chart of US dollar and the s p So stick with me even if you only want To know about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies this is going to be Vitally important for what's coming up For BTC which builds in into our real Estate and economic cycle our 18.6 to 20-ish year real estate and economic Cycle What I've got on the chart the Orange is The S P 500 over the course of the last Back to the 60s let's do the maths 60 Odd years and then the candle chart here Is of the US dollar so we're just Looking at Broad macro Trends in the USD And anyone can do this whether you're a Beginner intermediate Advanced anyone Can do this and you can start to piece The puzzle together better than any of Those macro economists or macro hedge Fund managers or anything like that it's Really really quite simple but there are
A lot of pieces to the puzzle so this is The peak on the US dollar And you can see the collapse after that Point going all the way down into the Later 80s then you get a bit of a Sideways period here a bit of a Consolidation move to the upside and Then another collapse a bit of Consolidation move to the upside and Then Maybe we get a collapse that's what I'm Looking at in terms of what's happened Before in history with the US dollar and Then this is backed against The S P 500 essentially what we can see Is a big move to the downside Consolidation another move up And back down consolidation another move Up and potentially back down before we Form some sort of consolidation just Based on the last 50 odd years going Back to here and of course 60 ish years Taking it further back now I've Obviously picked out those particular Areas some might say well that's Consolidation as well yeah maybe we did Have a little bit of consolidation on The way up out of that major low As you move up there's consolidation Probably wondering why is this important It's important based on the cycle itself Where is the stock market at and where Is the real estate cycle at so you might Have seen me bring this up before you
Guys have been following for a while you Would know about this so make sure you Do like and subscribe to the channel These are one of the very few places You'll see this on the internet anywhere That gives you an Insight a crystal ball Into potentially what's going to happen Again because it's happened for over 200 Years So we're looking at the market heading Up into this peak somewhere around here The peak that is not essentially the Crash maybe we get the crash after that Which then leads into this period there It is there so it's a guide as to what We're expecting to come next it looks Like we're in this sort of section here The Commodities are starting their their Moves uh huge infrastructure spending Will come you're seeing that already in The US and then this era of easy money Is basically one of the final pieces to The peak but retail believes this is Basically the start of their good times Because they're getting easy money Whenever you get easy money it's usually Around the end but the end can last a Year two years three years it's going to Be a longer time because we're looking At a 20-year cycle in the scheme of Things if it's two years of easy money That's only 10 of the entire cycle so it Might seem like a long time for the Everyday person but in terms of the
Cycle it really doesn't last that long So in terms of the cycle there's your 20 Uh 2020 the move out why is that Important well that gives us an idea of Where this part of the cycle is the Cycle started around here this was Around the bottom you had the crash the Real estate market dropped into the Early 90s you had the stock market peak In the 87 and then you had that first Leg out into the late 90s around 2000 The first dump and then the final move Into that final Peak so that's you're up Moving the cycle and then the dump And this little section here is Basically that crash so we're in that Section again we're moving up again We've had our crashes through here and 20 uh 2022 yep so 2020 and 2022 we're Moving through the sideways period and Then we get that final move to the Upside it doesn't have to happen exactly The same way that it did in 20 200567 maybe we go higher than these Tops maybe we come out and push that top In the next few years that's not what I'm talking about here we're just Looking at the cycle when it comes to What did the US dollar do and how did That affect the the the stock market Itself so we had that down move this Basically moved into this move down into The peak of the stock market then it had That consolidation before it moved out
So in the consolidation You can see the market moving up Grinding up it wasn't till the end that It started to move so this was the first Half Of the cycle that the US dollar Consolidated and also moved up while the First album cycle the market also moved Up The next half of the cycle US dollar collapsed and the stock market Went up so it doesn't always have to Happen the exact same way you don't get It that each time the stock market moves Up that the US dollar also has to move Down it's not not like that at all but In terms of the second half and the First half of the cycle you get Something similar this time You have the consolidate consolidation Here of the US dollar Market was also moving up another Consolidation but the US dollar overall Has moved up and the stock market has Moved up So what's coming next potentially is the Collapse of the USD short term yes we've Been holding out here we had a lot of Bad news for the US dollar that's Typical of any sort of new cycle the US Dollar when we go into it and zoom in Very very close you can see the last uh Four or five months from January the Dollar really hasn't pushed any lower
Than about 100 or 101 but the longer Term the trend is still quite down here You can see this move from the top has Been very significant compared to Anything in the past so it seems like The trends are turning So if history is to repeat in Cycles It's possible that we look like we are Heading up you know the view here on the Channel is that the stock markets are Starting their bull markets you can see That we had the lows here we're Potentially heading up in the stock Market Which means this is the stage where the US dollar starts to fall wherever that Bottom is I'm not talking about that Right now but it looks like based on Cycles that the US dollar will Eventually fall it may set up for the Next few days or a few weeks or maybe in A month or two because we've basically Gone down uh since September of 2022 so Quite some time here so maybe it holds Up for a little longer maybe tomorrow it Collapses from this point the main thing Is over the longer term over the next Several months to potentially a few Years that this thing will start to head Down so now we get on to BTC and so this Starts to make a little more sense now That we have at least those few Cycles In the past and what happens next for BTC because we just don't have as much
Information for Bitcoin so we have to Play the cycle smartly and understand What has already happened in the past Using the data that we do have when it Comes to risk on assets like the s p It's the stock market there's there's Risk involved rather than just holding Your cash you're investing it into the Market and so therefore you're taking Risk that whatever you buy has the Potential to go up but also has a Potential go down unlike cash where you Basically hold your cash and you you're Subject to inflation which we know at The moment is reasonably high so going On to BTC and where we sit in this stage Of the market I want to bring it in just a little bit Closer so go zooming into the shorter Term time frames here You can see for Bitcoin that against the US dollar of course you can see that we We had this pretty significant low the Covert collapse so when Bad things happen when there's fear in The market the US dollar spikes People flood to the US dollar it's safer Then Bitcoin has basically gone on this Mega Run to the upside and from that Point you can see that the dollar Has fallen away and it almost lines up Relatively well with the next breakout So this area here yes the dollar also Had some lows
But it didn't move out of the trading Range here and that's the top there I Don't have the number here on oh there Is 94 and a half the breakout in November almost directly coincides with The all-time high on BTC and then we Started the collapse in BTC which then Almost directly lines up with the Breakdown In the US dollar so there's the US Dollar Rising in value all the way to The peak in September so you've got a Few lows here in for BTC in September Then you had the US dollar just buying Time holding its ground like you can see Uh through these tops here this is on a Monthly chart so that's basically the Top that we're looking at there and then Eventually it collapsed so from BTC There's your breakdown there is the low On BTC US dollar has now collapsed right To that point of BTC where it peaked in February Bitcoin has now gone up it had a bit of A Sideways period right here Uh Bitcoin dropped US dollar Pete US dollar dropped Bitcoin Pete so this brings us to the Present day we've gone from macro to a Little shorter time frame to even Shorter time frame and now we're just Getting into the days here so That's what we were talking about at the
Beginning of the video with cryptos Coming down a lot of red here this is Sort of the short-term stuff this is the Stuff that we all feel on uh YouTube and Retail and you know if you're just in The market buying Pappy wherever that coin is they're all scams at the End of the day you're here to make money Of course don't don't marry those coins The short-term staff feels painful Especially with Bitcoin just yesterday Going in Uh 2.75 from open to close but in the Longer grand scheme of things if we go Back to this major cycle here where We're looking at The s p going up based on 50 to 60 years Of data here and in the second half of The real estate cycle we often see Usd4 Then we're likely no no guarantees of Course but we're likely to see the US Dollar fall which potentially could mean In the longer term if we see uh here it Is US dollar continue to fall could Potentially continue to push BTC up so In the shorter term yes there's going to Be some pain in the longer term based on Those Cycles it's very possible that Bitcoin does start to move a little Faster a little harder to that upside Once we get over whatever is going on in The US dollar right here if it holds up For a bit longer so this is the orange
Chart Then there's going to be some further Pain to the downside but overall this is Very much in that cycle of a downtrend For the USD which just means we've got To wait it out and wait out the pain for Bitcoin until it starts to move back up To that upside now if you're finding Value from this be sure to hit that like And subscribe this is the macro cycle Analysis stuff that we go through in Further detail with our members at Tia Premium the links to this in the top of The video description but if you just Want to get onto the email list check Out this TI crypto.com forward slash Subscribe our free newsletter comes out Once every two weeks and I believe this Is the week it'll be out tomorrow in About 24 hours time so get on board with That so you can stay up to date with Everything from Real Estate to cryptos To stocks this is the stuff that you Don't see elsewhere because most don't Bring in the real estate cycle so in Terms of the short term the next Question which usually comes up is well If bitcoin's going down how much further Can it go down can it collapse I've Pointed out many many times before that I doubt that this low for BTC will get Taken out there's nineteen and a half Thousand the news was just so extreme at That time and the market bounced so
Cleanly from that low is that that's my Very strong belief that this is not Going to get taken out in terms of the Analysis obviously that's my belief Based on my analysis I've seen this so Many times before where you have extreme News this was the FTX collapse that is Extreme news in anyone's book FTX Collapse Market went sideways it didn't Go any further than that and this was One of the smallest moves to the Downside anything that Bitcoin had seen All the way down Market go sideways and Then bursts out of that that is telling You that the low is likely very highly Likely the probabilities are on your Side that the low is in so I use that Same analysis here at this low that was Extreme news you can see from the NASDAQ As well that was back in March the Market barely went down extreme news and Then pushed to higher prices now you can See the NASDAQ from the cycle low is up 27 and just in the last few hours Yesterday's trading day it put in a new Closing price New highest closing price For 2023. that sort of stuff normally Doesn't happen if you have massive Recessions comings anything looming Sticky inflation any sort of bearishness That the media continue to throw away And people continue to believe and feel That shouldn't be happening if we are Going to get these sort of recessions
You should see the chart start to form Lower highs and lower highs and lower Highs and eventually start to collapse You shouldn't see the price putting in Higher lows and higher lows and pushing To higher prices it that's a sign of a Ball market so we don't want to get too Confused with the news headlines and What's actually going on in the charts So in the short term back to that yes BTC could go a little lower one of my Major lines in the sand for this shorter Term move is 26 500 which is the low Here from uh the 27th of March so that's A really key Point here for the market To continue to hold ideally we want to See this get back above 29 000 in the Next couple of days as we've had a bit Of a push down over the last few days Over the weekend so that's in the short Term is where you want to see BTC to Continue to recover for that to happen Maybe the US dollar will start to test 100 again 100.8 and push to new lows if It does start to push those new lows Probably going to see Bitcoin break 31 And then go and test those levels in the Mid 30 thousands which brings it back to This level uh in May of 2022 12 months Ago before the lunar and UST collapse so It's starting to make its way back to Higher prices So this was a massive update video for The cycle itself this is the real estate
Cycle this is BTC this is looking at the Stock markets it's what I think is going To happen over the next few months to Years shorter term much more difficult To identify but there are the lines in The sand for the pivot Points in the Short term so if you did get some value Hit that like subscribe to the channel Share it with a friend so they get an Understanding of the broad macro picture Throughout all of the markets and this Happens for the US for Australia Europe UK you name it I'll leave this with you Now let me know in the comments give me A Happy Frog Emoji if you made it this Far and check out the links down there As we have that free crypto and economic Report coming out tomorrow thanks again Guys I'll see you at the next video Until then take care and peace out