In what is a testament to the prevalence of the newly approved investment vehicles, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US hold 3.3% of the current BTC supply. Moreover, the investment products had ended the month of January with $197 million in net inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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00:00 Intro
00:17 Sponsor: Lux Algo
00:35 Bitcoin Sentiment
01:38 Bitcoin ETF 3% of supply
03:15 Wen rate cut?
07:34 Layoffs Coming
13:02 84% investors see Bitcoin at new all-time high
14:27 IPOs in 2024
17:13 Outro
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~ETFs Hold 3% of Bitcoin | Interest Rate Cuts Soon?~
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Let's dive into all this today we'll Talking about Bitcoin mostly a handful Of other projects out there but I do Want to get into our sponsor and that is Lux ago if you guys are looking to get Into trading and really amping up your Skills enhance your trading experience Through luago this is one of the tool Sets that we use in terms of indicators On the chart so make sure and check the Uh link out down below it's one of the Best places to go for uh getting your Trading indicators now one of the things That we do when we're looking at Lu Lux Algo and I kind of track track this Against what's happening also with Sentiment some of the things that we Look at here's Bitcoin of course after The fomc uh we've seen a little bit of a Dip right there on the daily but you can Kind of see the amount of money that's Been flowing out over the last couple of Weeks people taking profits moving back Down and then we did see a little bit of Money flow coming into Bitcoin here Slightly just early this week also still In the green though so we are back at 43k on bitcoin if you look at some of The sentiment factors that we've been Looking at one thing that I'm I'm a Little concerned with Bitcoin right now The last time we saw up up an upside Trend on sentiment we started to see a Downtrend on the uh amplification
Sentiment and what happened when that Occurred was when we saw Bitcoin Starting to recorrect which it has just Recently started to correct but we're Already seeing a little bit of a Separation here so is this maybe an Early signal of maybe Bitcoin coming Back down under 42k so we're going to be Watching that very closely let's get Into a few things I want to lead off Right here with justtin Spa Bitcoin ETFs Hold 3.3% of current bitcoin Supply this Is massive and again this also goes back To our point is that is the ETF really Drawing in new money or are we starting To see new ways in which the market is Really just Shuff ing around in terms of Where exposure is being done grayscale Comes in and says hey wait a minute Grayscale crypto sector framework not Just about Bitcoin and ethereum it's Also about the entirety of an asset Class that is being developed I would Agree with that to a certain extent is That there is an asset class that is Being developed right now we have the 12 Sector it's here crypto and I think the Question is when does Main Street really Start to move into the market another Thing I wanted to hit on right here was This tweet and it's talking about black Black Rock now controlling 63,800 plus um Bitcoin from yesterday Massive increase 900 Bitcoin issued per
Day soon this will drop to 450 you see The weight difference there guys we're Talking about this is the amount that The miners are producing we're about to See that drop in half in May and black Rock is soaking up 6,000 Bitcoins a day That's uh that's insane so that believes One thing we're going to see an all-time High with Bitcoin and does it happen 2024 this is the question mark right now Because you still have pressure coming In from the fed the FED continues to put A lot of negative pressure and I think After the fomc meeting yesterday we had All this discussion within the crypto Pit we've seen analyst after analyst Kind of look at this both on a positive Note and on a negative note I'm a little Bit more on the hawkish Note here's why There's a couple of things that have Happened and he really talked about this Whole data collection process I showed a Lot of data on the charts yesterday in The video if you didn't catch that go Back and watch our fomc meeting but Mainly what I was showing is that we Have seen Down Cycles on inflation now Granted yes there is a bit of a risk if We do see upside the problem that I Think the market is not going to allow That is all around these job losses that We've seen just really in the last 60 Days days remember job Cuts going into The holidays not so much after the
Beginning of the year that's when Companies corporations will start making Their adjustments and that's actually What has started to happen we've started To see job cut after job cut and I think It's only the beginning moving into some Of the markets and especially earning Seasons that we'll start to see in q1 I Think we'll see another major round of Job Cuts either in March prior earnings So they can soften the blow Andor in April so they can adjust for the next Quarter so there's some things happening Remember timing here all in line with This so rate cuts are really the big Question here if you look at what pal Said here couple of points pointed out That it was premature for the red fed to Start interest Cuts in March so that's The negative point of it we all know Inflation will fall however we you know For now we think there will be a Positive rate of inflation in Decline so He thinks we're going to stall a little Bit I think at this point he's right I Don't agree with him of often I think we Are going to stall a little bit in terms Of inflation which is going to push the Rate cuts into later in the year now What does that mean for Bitcoin could be Good because we are potentially going to See maybe a softer February on bitcoin After a pretty rockus you know situation At the end of last year and even with
The start of this year but uh fed you Know L High long-term interest rate Strategy carries negative risk for Future growth this is still a problem Going forward which is also another Negative connotation to the markets And then Bloomberg economics economists Continue to think there will be an Interest rate cut in March I disagree I Don't think we get one in March I think There's too many things in the way for Them to actually see a rate cut unless There is a massive impact on inflation If we see a significant three to four Point drop in inflation okay maybe so I Just don't see that happening though Unless it because the labor market just Now starting to ramp up in the sense of Job cuts um and they they even talk About that that they think the softening Of the labor market and inflation is Weakening the lay labor market we're Going to see more layoffs yeah I would Agree with that Goldman Sachs says that After Pal's negative statements they Posted their forecast for the fed's Interest rate cuts from March to May so They're kind of going back to the point I think which is a little bit later in The year may could be the the date that Is a very good possibility obviously Timing here with Bitcoin having yeah for Sure here of course is macro Al Committee does not expect the
Appropriate reduction C in target range Till the gain is greater confidence Around inflation moving sustainability Uh toward 2% sustainably sort 2% that's the problem Mark because if we See a flatline even though we're losing Jobs and we're not seeing massive Correction in inflation those are both Bad things for the economy that's Consumer confidence that means S&P will Start to take a little bit of a Structure uh and also we'll start to see And pull back possibly Into Cash again That's the worst thing that can happen For crypto so those are the things that We're watching very closely here was Another uh point right here big thoughts On on the fomc big picture doish I would Agree with that small picture hawkish You know uh J pal says no Cuts in March Tamper animal spirits but the FED Turning doish will start cutting either In May or June I'm in agreement with This I still feel like that's going to Happen but again there's only one thing That will change that for March and that Is a major CP I hit in our next two Reports that's the question mark going Forward here's gr dector layoff Announcements 880,000 in the US in January uh this is the most in 10 months Something we've talked about here on the Show for quite a a while is that job Cuts are coming well they're here 136
In% increase from December what I said Earlier nobody lays off in the holiday Season or not anybody with a heart and Come January that's when everybody Starts their cuts and then us PayPal or UPS PayPal Microsoft Google all big Layoffs and remember media we've seen Sports Illustrated Business Insider Among many others start to take hits and Actually close down so this is happening In all sectors it's not just Tech and It's definitely uh I think going to Start hitting Main Street and that's When it gets serious is when it starts To hit Main Street I want to go to a Clip here this is big Tech uh founder uh That was talking about tech layoffs in General some of these mid-level kind of Google engine are shaking free this Might open up some opportunity listen to What he had to say well versed in the Non-ai old school Technologies are they Finding years that are are getting laid Off here you mentioned that they're sort Of more well-versed in the non aai old School Technologies are they finding Places in other companies what's the Demand for those workers and and and the Manager is probably even tougher right Yeah absolutely look if if you are Hiring in this environment you spent the Last five years in the zero interest Rate world trying to poach from Google And you've been unsuccessful now some of
Those mid-level Google Engineers are Shaking free this is your dream so you Just need to hold your hand up in this Job environment if you're a former Google engineer and you're going to get Offers now there are some companies that Are going to be a little bit reticent Because Google has been viewed by the Tech world as a summer camp where you Don't have to do much and it might be a Shock for those people within Google to Go find new employment but that being Said you know this is a a job Seekers Market Right so I have a a couple of things on That you know and my background in in Running devs for a long period of time First of all someone coming from a Google job going to an entry labor even B mid-market job is uh not likely Because the amount of the salary disp Portion that you've got of a Google paid Engineer versus them going into a Mid-tier market secondly is that VC Money has already started to slow in the Market for advancing businesses money is Much harder and then you have high cost Of capital so where would they get the Money to pay for that Google engineer so I think that's BS that's just not Something that's going to happen those Jobs are going to be lost and that will Hit the bottom line of the American Economy because that's the kind of jobs
That we don't want to see lost because They contribute so much to a typical Economy they are usually the affluent Here's a further clip this was squawkbox Talking about strong motivation to be Swayed by politics uh Etc around the Election let's listen in as you get Closer to nor there is this view Obviously that maybe it gets harder for Them to even touch rates it's not about Lowering rates or increasing rates it's About doing anything with rates and and I wonder as as we do get closer whether You think that that little birdie gets Louder I so when you asked me the other Day I was very clear that that's not an Explicit part of the conversation as I Said I can't speak to what's in people's Heads I do think really we have to Recognize that the know the the chair The historic chair of the FED that was Most criticized was Arthur Burns because He was thought to be too political um And so yeah there's a strong strong Motivation to not be seen to be swayed By you know politics one way or the Other um and look if the data come in Saying they need to move close to the Election they would be unwise to delay Because then they will have a more Difficult situation on their hands you Know having you try to move more quickly After it um and so I think they are Going to follow the data as pal said um
And if you know one of those moves is Very close to the ction my advice to Them would be to go on and take the move Because the failure to move on the right Time can have negative repercussions lat Yeah I I would agree with that in the Sense that if you know politically this Is a little bit of a tricky tight RPP That pal has to walk not that there and First of all this is political always Will be the FED is going to be in an Interesting position because it is an Election year we haven't seen these kind Of Cycles land in election years before Not often all the way back I think to 2008 but if you look at a couple of Things that he stated here in the sense Of if the if let's say that we do get Pressure more job loss and a slowing Inflation drop meaning we're not getting Near the 2% that does put some high Pressure well I would say sell pressure On the FED to say okay we got to go Ahead we're losing jobs we've got to Lower the interest rate the FED fund Rate because we got to loosen up Capital Because Capital will of course inject in The economy maybe get into jobs but it's Not going to help affect the actual Situation of the economy and that's the One that I think there between a rock And a hard place I think it might be too Late as a political Ploy going forward This year remember we're in now February
And we have an election in November that Means really October is our no go noo Date and there's just not enough time in Between this so it's going to be a very Very interesting summer how do they Spend this is the question both sides GOP and the Demps will be a question Marker 84% of crypto investors now Foresee bitcoin's new Bull Run highs uh I would agree I think we are going to See Bitcoin make it to a new high is it A 24 high or is it a 25 High I think Everything right now depends on where The FED pivots and jobs are going to be The thing I'm watching most because if They continue to see the kind of cuts We've seen just in the first 30 days of The year then I think yes we might have A reason for potential pivot in May uh Or possibly June couple of points they Made in this this was the report they Revealed that 70% of investors plan to Increase their crypto allocations 24 They know it's coming devaluation of the American dollar we understand that Anticipating a bull run triggered by This event 84% also say that uh n almost 10,000 participants expecting Bitcoin to Pass its previous high at 69k you guys think that do you think we Are in that kind of cycle where we would See the continuation of a new all-time High in you know a potential of maybe Another 60 to 70% of that would love to
Get you guys' thoughts on that I'm still A little bit questioned as to whether or Not we'll see that with Bitcoin this Time around majority of investors 55% Predict bitcoin's price stabilized Between 50 and 100 significant portion Sees it soaring above 150 that would be Pretty significant right now considering Bitcoin is hovering around 43k so a nice 3x move for all of you guys out there Further into this I'll end with this Clip this is squawkbox talking about Really kind of the future of IPOs and Why this might be important to crypto I'll explain right after this clip Listen it IPOs and you know we're seeing A fairly stable rate Outlook at this Point I talked to m&a Bankers who say The pipeline actually looks really good Not just for m&a but also for IPOs as a Wealth reporter I like to see liquidity Events and we just didn't have many last Year or the year before what does that Pipeline look look to you and is it Surprising that we're not really seeing Much activity yet it's obviously still January uh but what does the sort of Second third quarter look like well we Actually I would say we're off to a Slightly better start this year than Last year even but we are seeing uh a Lot more interests in coming public this Year we have 85 companies on file to List on NASDAQ assuming that the markets
Um are receptive and as you know you Know investors need to have a pretty Good understanding of what the future Looks like in order for them to Underwrite risk and I would agree with You you know a more normalized uh Inflationary environment and so Therefore the cost of doing business is More known and now you know that the Cost of capital isn't going to go up and There's a potential that comes down you Know that gives them more confidence too So our view is that the markets will be Hopefully a lot more receptive soon the You know the economy see robust in the Process I think that we'll see a much More inviting IPO environment this year Are there any big names out there that You can mention that we might look out For in the next six to n months well we Don't actually specifically talk about Names but I would say we have this new IPO pulse index that we created that Tries to provide you a leading indicator As to what the IPO environment is likely To look like and it is indicating over The next six months that we should be Able to see a a real pickup in IPOs And all right so some good things there In the sense that you know uh company's Going public I think it's be between a Rock and a hard place meaning they're Trying to get it done before we could See a potential major correction in the
Market and possibly a hard Landing That's one factor the advantage is is is That there's going to be a lot of people Out of work and for an IPO you're going To need job growth job growth is usually What gets stimulated when an IPO happens Because they need to hire a lot of People so that's one advantage is that They'll have a market uh to really go Out there and get a job pool that is Available whether it's Engineers from Google or other tech companies that Could fall into this remember Circle Going into an IPO so it is really kind Of a rock in a hard place get it done Labor is in a position where we might be Able to benefit from it but the market May be in a more difficult position Where we may not be able to benefit it From it when it comes to actual Participation in these IPOs so it's Going to be interesting to see how all This plays out that's for sure we got a Lot happening right now in early 2024 as We record this of course if you guys are Not in the diamond circle make sure and Get in because it's another place where We drop additional podcasts and more Research additional insights that we Don't put here on YouTube so it's really Easy and of course catch me out there on X at Paul Baron we'll catch you next Time right here on Tech bath
